USDINR opened gap down at 76.31 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.98-76.36 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.07 , loss of 60 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.67. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.06 y’day. Apr USD/INR closed at 76.11, loss of 43 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.64. April Euro/INR closed at 82.04, GBP/INR at 93.99 and Yen/INR at 70.81.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 7 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S have nett sold Rs 7109 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.38% y’day. DOW climbed 39 points (0.17%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.52% and Hang seng climbed 0.35% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0768,Pound at 1.2347,Yen at 107.63.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1747 and WT1Crude at USD 17/Brent at USD 22.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.59% and 3 m libor closed at 1.18%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.14%.
Economic news: Slump in EU and UK mfrg and services data is far below consensus estimates. The readings indicate a quarterly contraction of -7% in GDP. Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “April saw unprecedented damage to the eurozone economy amid virus lockdown measures coupled with slumping global demand and shortages of both staff and inputs. The extent to which the PMI survey has shown business to have collapsed across the eurozone greatly exceeds anything ever seen before in over 20 years of data collection.
Data highlights : US new home sales dipped to 627k and weekly jobless claims was reported at 4.4 mn.
-EU PMI(mfrg) declined to 33.6. PMI(services) declined to 11.7.
-UK PMI(mfrg) declined to 32.9. PMI(services) declined to 12.3.
Friday’s calendar:- US Durables order
-German Ifo survey
-UK retail sales.
| USD/INR | 76.36 | 75.98 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0768 | 1.0848 | 1.0755 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2347 | 1.2416 | 1.2307 |
| USD/JPY | 107.63 | 108.04 | 107.34 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0794 | 1.0833 | 1.0886 | 1.0925 | 1.0740 | 1.0702 | 1.0648 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2356 | 1.2405 | 1.2465 | 1.2513 | 1.2296 | 1.2247 | 1.2187 |
| USD/JPY | 107.66 | 107.98 | 108.37 | 108.69 | 107.28 | 106.95 | 106.57 |
| USD/INR | 76.13 | 76.29 | 76.51 | 75.90 | 75.75 | ||
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0780/1.0665 | 1.10/1.1145 | DN | UP>1.10 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2165/1.1935 | 1.2665/1.2820 | SIDE | DN<1.2165 |
| USD/JPY | 106.90/105.15 | 109.40/111.70 | UP | DN<106.90 |
| USD/INR | 75.95/75.55 | 76.55/76.85 | UP | SIDE<76.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9540/.92 | 0.99 | DN | UP>0.99 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.98. 50 day moving average is at 73.84.200 day moving average is at 71.42. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.90. Important support is at 75.95. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP:76.19 ,S1:75.89, S2:75.68, R1:76.40, R2: 76.70
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.10 and later at 1.1150. Major support is at 1.0770 and later at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important resistance at 1.0770. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is between major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2650/1.2820. Important support is at 1.2165 and later at 1.1935.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.40. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.90/105.90./Please call us for clarifications/ (Sridhar S R)
