FX MORNING UPDATE

FX MORNING UPDATE

USDINR opened at 76.74 y’day and the pair traded in the 76.61-76.85 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.83 , gain of 29 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.54. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.65 y’day. Apr USD/INR closed at 77.06, gain of 43 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.63. April Euro/INR closed at 83.37, GBP/INR at 94.80 and Yen/INR at 71.67. 

FII’S have nett sold Rs 7 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S have nett sold Rs 7109 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 3.03% y’day. DOW declined 631 points (2.67%) y’day. Nikkei declined 1.97% and Hang seng declined 2.2% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0833,Pound at 1.2401,Yen at 107.53.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1708 and WT1Crude at USD 12.72/Brent at USD 18.87.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.57% and 3 m libor closed at 1.18%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.21%.

Economic news: Spot Crude tumbled to –USD 40 as buyers disappeared for futures contract that expired on Apr 20 th due to lack of storage space. Depressed Oil demand and lack of storage space along with trading of commodity futures till expiration combined to pull Oil below 0.

Data highlights : US existing home sales was reported at 5.27mn.

-German Zew survey rebounded to 28.2 EU Zew survey also rebounded to 25.2.

-UK unemployment rate is at 4% and claimant count change was reported at 12.1k.    

Wednesday’s calendar:- US house price index and consumer confidence

-UK CPI and PPI

USD/INR 76.85 76.61
EUR/USD 1.0850 1.0882 1.0816
GBP/USD 1.2401 1.2451 1.2247
USD/JPY 107.53 107.90 107.28

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.0852 1.0888 1.0918 1.0955 1.0822 1.0786 1.0756
GBP/USD 1.2331 1.2415 1.2535 1.2620 1.2211 1.2127 1.2006
USD/JPY 107.63 107.97 108.24 108.58 107.37 107.02 106.76
USD/INR 76.76 76.91 77 76.67 76.52

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.0780/1.0665 1.10/1.1145 DN UP>1.10
GBP/USD 1.2165/1.1935 1.2665/1.2820 SIDE DN<1.2165
USD/JPY 106.90/105.15 109.40/111.70 UP DN<106.90
USD/INR 76.30/75.95 76.85/77.30 UP SIDE<76.30
USD/CHF 0.9540/.92 0.99 DN UP>0.99

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.80. 50 day moving average is at 73.64.200 day moving average is at 71.42. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 76.30/75.85. Spot closed above its average level of the day. 

Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are: 

PP:76.92 ,S1:76.77, S2:76.49, R1:77.20, R2: 77.35                                 

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.10 and later at 1.1150. Major support is at 1.0770 and later at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important resistance at 1.0770. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is between major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2650/1.2820. Important support is at 1.2165 and later at 1.1935.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.40. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.90/105.90.

   

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