USDINR opened at 76.56 on Friday and the pair traded in the 76.35-76.63 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.40 , loss of 47 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.87. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.54 on Friday. Apr USD/INR closed at 76.58, loss of 45 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 77.03. April Euro/INR closed at 82.97, GBP/INR at 95.47 and Yen/INR at 71.01.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 7 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S have nett sold Rs 7109 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 3.05% on Friday. DOW climbed 704 points (2.99%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 3.15% and Hang seng climbed 1.56% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.0876,Pound at 1.2499,Yen at 107.53.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1694 and WT1Crude at USD 18.20/Brent at USD 28.35.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.654% and 3 m libor closed at 1.18%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.35%.
Economic news: RBI announced new liquidity measures and to incentivise banks to lend. Reverse repo was cut to 3.75% to deter banks from parking funds wth RBI. New TRLTO of Rs 50000 Cr for lending to NBFC’S and Rs 50000 Cr refinancing facilities to NABARD, SIDBI and NHAI were also announced. Banks have been barred from dividend payouts in this year to preserve capital. Liquidity coverage ratio has been reduced. Assets under moratorium will not be classified as NPA.
Chinese GDP plunged -6.8% y/y in 1Q20, weaker than consensus of -6.5%. From a quarter ago, the economy slumped -9.8%, compared with expectations of a -9.9% decline.
Global markets ended the week on a high note as there was optimism on treatment for Covid-19. It is reported that Gilead’s remdesivir could be a remedy. Also, talks of graded reopening of economy spurred markets.
Data highlights : EU CPI climbed 1% y/y.
Monday’s calendar:- No major data release.
| USD/INR | 76.63 | 76.35 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0876 | 1.0893 | 1.0812 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2499 | 1.2523 | 1.2407 |
| USD/JPY | 107.53 | 108.08 | 107.30 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0860 | 1.0908 | 1.0941 | 1.0827 | 1.0779 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.2476 | 1.2545 | 1.2592 | 1.2429 | 1.2360 | ||
| USD/JPY | 107.63 | 107.97 | 108.41 | 107.18 | 106.85 | ||
| USD/INR | 76.46 | 76.57 | 76.74 | 76.29 | 76.18 | ||
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0780/1.0665 | 1.10/1.1145 | DN | UP>1.10 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2165/1.1935 | 1.2665/1.2820 | SIDE | DN<1.2165 |
| USD/JPY | 106.90/105.15 | 109.40/111.70 | UP | DN<106.90 |
| USD/INR | 76.30/75.95 | 77.30 | UP | SIDE<76.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9540/.92 | 0.99 | DN | UP>0.99 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.54. 50 day moving average is at 73.42.200 day moving average is at 71.42. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 76.30/75.85. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP:76.59 ,S1:76.36, S2:76.15, R1:76.80, R2: 77.03
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.10 and later at 1.1150. Major support is at 1.0770 and later at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important resistance at 1.0770. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is between major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2650/1.2820. Important support is at 1.2165 and later at 1.1935.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.40. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.90/105.90.
