FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 76.74 Y’day and the pair traded in the 76.68-76.87 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.87 , gain of 43 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.44. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.74 y’day. Apr USD/INR closed at 77.03, gain of 31 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.72. April Euro/INR closed at 83.78, GBP/INR at 96.16 and Yen/INR at 71.48.
FII’S nett bought Rs 850 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S have nett sold Rs 4319 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.76% Y’day. DOW climbed 33 points (0.14%) y’day. Nikkei declined 1.33% and Hang seng declined 0.58% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0872,Pound at 1.2514,Yen at 107.69.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1710 and WT1Crude at USD 20/Brent at USD 28.40.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.683% and 3 m libor closed at 1.18%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.47%.
Economic news: US weekly jobless claims topped 5 mn and last 4 week data climbed to 22 mn. Fed’s beige book affirmed the economic deterioration, noting that “economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the United States as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
ECB Chief said “in the euro area, incoming economic data, particularly recent survey results, have started to show unprecedented falls, pointing to a large contraction in output in the euro area, as well as to rapidly deteriorating labour markets.”
Data highlights : US weekly jobless claims reported loss of 5.24 mn jobs, building permits rose marginally to 1.35 mn, housing starts declined to 1.22 mn and Phily Fed mfrg index indicator declined to -56.6.
Friday’s calendar:- EU CPI
| USD/INR | 76.87 | 76.68 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0872 | 1.0908 | 1.0817 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2514 | 1.2526 | 1.2408 |
| USD/JPY | 107.69 | 108.08 | 107.17 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0861 | 1.0905 | 1.0953 | 1.0997 | 1.0814 | 1.0769 | 1.0722 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2474 | 1.2540 | 1.2591 | 1.2657 | 1.2422 | 1.2357 | 1.2305 |
| USD/JPY | 107.73 | 108.29 | 108.65 | 109.21 | 107.38 | 106.81 | 106.46 |
| USD/INR | 76.81 | 76.94 | 77 | 76.75 | 76.62 | ||
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0780/1.0665 | 1.1145/1.1240 | DN | UP>1.1150 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2165/1.1935 | 1.2470/1.2665 | SIDE | DN<1.2165 |
| USD/JPY | 106.90/105.15 | 109.60/111.70 | UP | DN<106.90 |
| USD/INR | 76.55/76.30/75.95 | 77.20 | UP | SIDE<76.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9540/.92 | 0.99 | DN | UP>0.99 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.43. 50 day moving average is at 73.33.21.200 day moving average is at 71.31. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 76.30/75.85. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP:76.94 ,S1:76.81, S2:76.59, R1:77.16, R2: 77.29
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1150 and later at 1.1240. Major support is at 1.0770 and later at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important resistance at 1.1150. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is between major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2470/1.2665. Important support is at 1.2165 and later at 1.1935.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.60. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.90/105.90.
