FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 76.28 on Monday and the pair traded in the 76.25-76.45 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.28 , loss of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.29. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.36 on Monday. Apr USD/INR closed at 76.39, loss of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior days close of 76.49. April Euro/INR closed at 83.27, GBP/INR at 95.09 and Yen/INR at 71.07. Market was closed yday.
FIIS nett bought Rs 850 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FIIS have nett sold Rs 4319 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. In FY 19-20, FIIs have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 1.30% on Monday. DOW climbed 285 points (1.22%) on Thursday. Nikkei climbed 3.13% and Hang seng climbed 0.56% yday.
Euro is now at 1.0936,Pound at 1.2455,Yen at 108.47.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1752 and WT1Crude at USD 23.21/Brent at USD 31.82.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.73% and 3 m libor closed at 1.43%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.49%.
Economic news: Indian CPI eased to 5.91% from Fed data of 6.58%. Food inflation eased to 8.76%.
IMF report slashed Indian GDP growth to 1.9% in 2020-21 and Global GDP to -3% degrowth.
Chinese March exports dropped -6.6% yoy to USD 185.2B. Imports dropped -0.9% yoy to USD 165.3B. Trade surplus came in at USD 19.9B. From January to March accumulative, exports dropped -13.3% ytd/y to USD 478.2B. Imports dropped -2.9% ytd/y to 465.0B. Trade surplus came in at just USD 13.2B.
Data highlights : No major data release.
Wednesdays calendar:- US retail sales and industrial production.
USD/INR

76.45
76.25

EUR/USD
1.0936
1.0953
1.0919

GBP/USD
1.2455
1.2488
1.2443

USD/JPY
108.47
108.61
108.32

Daily Support/Resistance table
CurrencyPairs
Pivot
R1
R2
R3
S1
S2
S3

EURO/USD
1.0936
1.0953
1.0970

1.0919
1.0902

GBP/USD
1.2462
1.2481
1.2507

1.2436
1.2417

USD/JPY
108.46

108.60
108.75

108.31
108.17

USD/INR
76.32
76.40
76.52

76.19
76.12

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Curency Pair
Supports
Resistances
Trend
Remarks

EURO/USD
1.0780/1.0665
1.1145/1.1240
DN
UP>1.1150

GBP/USD
1.2165/1.1935
1.2470/1.2665
SIDE
DN<1.2165

USD/JPY
106.90/105.15
109.60/111.70
UP
DN<106.90

USD/INR
75.55
76.30/76.75/77/77.60
UP
SIDE<75.55

USD/CHF
0.9540/.92
0.99
DN
UP>0.99

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.15. 50 day moving average is at 73.11.200 day moving average is at 71.31. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 75.55/74.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP:76.47 ,S1:76.27, S2:76.15, R1:76.59, R2: 76.79
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1150 and later at 1.1240. Major support is at 1.0770 and later at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important resistance at 1.1150. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is between major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2470/1.2665. Important support is at 1.2165 and later at 1.1935.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.60. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.90/105.90.