USDINR opened at 76.09 on Thursday and the pair traded in the 76.08-76.55 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.29 , loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.34. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.45 on Thursday. Apr USD/INR closed at 76.49, loss of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.54. April Euro/INR closed at 83.25, GBP/INR at 95.40 and Yen/INR at 70.14. Market was closed on Friday.
FII’S nett bought Rs 850 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S have nett sold Rs 4319 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 4.15% on Thursday. DOW climbed 285 points (1.22%) on Thursday. Nikkei climbed 0.79% and Hang seng climbed 1.38% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.0936,Pound at 1.2455,Yen at 108.47.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1752 and WT1Crude at USD 23.21/Brent at USD 31.82.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.73% and 3 m libor closed at 1.43%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.49%.
Economic news: Indian IIP climbed 4.5% in Feb. Mfrg climbed 3.2% and mining climbed 10%. However, coroa virus may have upended the incipient recovery.
Fed minutes noted that “members agreed that economic situation has “deteriorated sharply” in light of the coronavirus pandemic. They were also in “strong support” of the measures to facilitate the flow of credit to households and businesses. Despite the consensus that “a forceful monetary policy” is needed, the size of rate cut and the rationale of QE infinity were rigorous debated.
Data highlights : US weekly jobless claims was reported at 6.6 mn and PPI declined -0.2% m/m.
-UK industrial and manufacturing production climbed 0.1% and 0.5% m/m respectively.
Monday’s calendar:- No major data release.
| USD/INR | 76.55 | 76.08 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0936 | 1.0953 | 1.0919 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2455 | 1.2488 | 1.2443 |
| USD/JPY | 108.47 | 108.61 | 108.32 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0936 | 1.0953 | 1.0970 | 1.0919 | 1.0902 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.2462 | 1.2481 | 1.2507 | 1.2436 | 1.2417 | ||
| USD/JPY | 108.46
|
108.60 | 108.75 | 108.31 | 108.17 |
|
|
| USD/INR | 76.30 | 76.53 | 76.77 | 76.05 | 75.83 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0780/1.0665 | 1.1145/1.1240 | DN | UP>1.1150 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2165/1.1935 | 1.2470/1.2665 | SIDE | DN<1.2165 |
| USD/JPY | 106.90/105.15 | 109.60/111.70 | UP | DN<106.90 |
| USD/INR | 75.55 | 76.30/76.75/77/77.60 | UP | SIDE<75.55 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9540/.92 | 0.99 | DN | UP>0.99 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.03. 50 day moving average is at 73.200 day moving average is at 71.18. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 75.55/74.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP:76.50 ,S1:76.25, S2:76.03, R1:76.73, R2: 76.97
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1150 and later at 1.1240. Major support is at 1.0770 and later at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important resistance at 1.1150. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is between major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2470/1.2665. Important support is at 1.2165 and later at 1.1935.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.60. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.90/105.90.
