FX MORNING UPDATE

                                                                                     

USDINR opened at 75.81 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.73-76.36 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.34 , gain of 71 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.63. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.08 y’day. Apr USD/INR closed at 76.54, gain of 68 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.86. April Euro/INR closed at 83.24, GBP/INR at 94.48 and Yen/INR at 70.19.

FII’S nett sold  Rs 58361 Cr of Indian Equities in March . FII’S have nett sold Rs 58110 Cr of Indian debt securities in March. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.49% y’day. DOW climbed 779 points (3.44%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 2.13% and Hang seng declined 1.17% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0871,Pound at 1.2325,Yen at 108.78.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1681 and WT1Crude at USD 26/Brent at USD 33.55.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.73% and 3 m libor closed at 1.43%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.39%.

Economic news: EU Finance Ministers failed to agree on coordinated coronavirus economic rescue after marathon talks. Euro stocks declined. Indian and US Equities climbed higher, though gains in Indian market fizzled. German economic thin tank institute said that German economy is likely to declined by -4.2% in 2020.

Data highlights : No major data release.

Thursday’s calendar:- US weekly jobless claims and PPI

-UK industrial and manufacturing production

USD/INR   76.36 75.73
EUR/USD 1.0858 1.0904 1.0829
GBP/USD 1.2395 1.2421 1.2288
USD/JPY 108.94 109.11 108.50

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.0864 1.0899 1.0938 1.0973 1.0824 1.0790 1.0750
GBP/USD 1.2365 1.2442 1.2498 1.2575 1.2309 1.2232 1.2176
USD/JPY 108.81

 

109.12 109.42 109.73 108.51 108.20 107.91

 

USD/INR 76.14 76.55 76.77   75.92 75.51

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.0780/1.0665 1.1145/1.1240 DN UP>1.1150
GBP/USD 1.1935/1.14 1.2470/1.2665 SIDE DN<1.2195
USD/JPY 106.90/105.90/103 112 UP DN<106.90
USD/INR 75.30/74.75 76.30/76.75/77/77.60 UP SIDE<74.40
USD/CHF 0.9540/.92 0.99 DN UP>0.99

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.72. 50 day moving average is at 72.80.200 day moving average is at 71.18. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 74.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

 

Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP:76.34 ,S1:76.12, S2:75.71, R1:76.75, R2: 76.97                                

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1150 and later at 1.1240. Major support is at 1.0770 and later at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important resistance at 1.1150. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is between major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2470/1.2665. Important support is at 1.2175 and later at 1.1935.

USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.72. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.90/105.90.

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