USDINR opened at 76.05 on Friday and the pair traded in the 75.80-76.38 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.19 , gain of 53 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.66. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.382 on Friday. Apr USD/INR closed at 76.39, gain of 49 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.90. April Euro/INR closed at 82.63, GBP/INR at 93.89 and Yen/INR at 70.42. FX market was closed on Monday.
FII’S nett sold Rs 58361 Cr of Indian Equities in March . FII’S have nett sold Rs 58110 Cr of Indian debt securities in March. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 2.06% on Friday. DOW climbed 1627 points (7.73%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 4.24% and Hang seng climbed 2.21% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0810,Pound at 1.2264,Yen at 108.81.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1715 and WT1Crude at USD 27/Brent at USD 34.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.688% and 3 m libor closed at 1.43%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.21%.
Economic news: US non-farm payroll employment dropped -701k in March. Unemployment rate jumped from 3.5% to 4.4%. That’s the largest over-the-month increase since January 1975. Global Equity markets rallied y’day on optimism that corona is close to peaking out.
Data highlights : US ISM(non mfrg) climbed to 52.5.
-EU PMI(services) declined to 26.4 and retail sales climbed 0.9% m/m. Sentix investor confidence indicator declined to -42.9.
-German factory orders and EU sentix investor confidence
-UK PMI(services) dipped to 34.5. PMI(construction) declined to 39.3.
Tuesday’s calendar:- No major data release.
| USD/INR | 76.38 | 75.80 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0810 | 1.0835 | 1.0768 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2264 | 1.2328 | 1.2208 |
| USD/JPY | 108.81 | 109.39 | 108.35 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0799 | 1.0830 | 1.0867 | 1.0898 | 1.0763 | 1.0731 | 1.0695 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2256 | 1.2304 | 1.2375 | 1.2423 | 1.2184 | 1.2137 | 1.2065 |
| USD/JPY | 108.99
|
109.63 | 110.03 | 110.68 | 108.59 | 107.95 | 107.55
|
| USD/INR | 76.12 | 76.45 | 76.71 | 75.86 | 75.53 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0780/1.0665 | 1.1145/1.1240 | DN | UP>1.1150 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1935/1.14 | 1.2470/1.2665 | SIDE | DN<1.2195 |
| USD/JPY | 106.90/105.90/103 | 112 | UP | DN<106.90 |
| USD/INR | 75.85/75.60 | 76.30/76.75/77/77.60 | UP | SIDE<74.40 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9540/.92 | 0.99 | DN | UP>0.99 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.61. 50 day moving average is at 72.71.200 day moving average is at 71.18. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 74.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP:76.32 ,S1:76.06, S2:75.74, R1:76.64, R2: 76.90
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1150 and later at 1.1240. Major support is at 1.0770 and later at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important resistance at 1.1150. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is between major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2470/1.2665. Important support is at 1.2175 and later at 1.1935.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.72. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.90/105.90.
