USDINR opened at 75.48 on Tuesday and the pair traded in the 75.28-75.68 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.66 , gain of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.59. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.38 on Tuesday. Apr USD/INR closed at 75.90, loss of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.98. April Euro/INR closed at 83, GBP/INR at 93.56 and Yen/INR at 69.67. FX markets remained closed on Wednesday and Thursday.
FII’S nett sold Rs 58361 Cr of Indian Equities in March . FII’S have nett sold Rs 58110 Cr of Indian debt securities in March. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 4% on Wednesday. DOW climbed 469 points (2.24%) y’day. Nikkei declined 1.37% and Hang seng climbed 0.84% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0850,Pound at 1.2380,Yen at 107.89.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1632 and WT1Crude at USD 24.35/Brent at USD 29.35.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.60% and 3 m libor closed at 1.43%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.21%.
Economic news: Oil prices climbed as US President said that Saudi and Russia have agreed to cut production by 10 million barrels.
Indian GST collections declined to 97500 Cr in March. PMI(mfrg) declined to 51.8 in March from Feb reading of 54.5. Indian fuel consumption is down 17% last month.
Data highlights : US Chicago PMI climbed to 47.8, S&P House price index climbed 3.1% y/y and consumer confidence climbed to 120.
-US ISM(mfrg) climbed more than expected to 49.1 and ADP reported loss of 27k jobs.
-US weekly jobless claims soared to 6.6 mn and factory orders was flat m/m.
-EU CPI climbed 1% y/y. PMI(mfrg) was reported at 44.5. Unemployment rate was reported at 7.3%.
-UK PMI(mfrg) climbed to 47.8.
Friday’s calendar:- US nonfarm payrolls and ISM(non mfrg)
-EU PMI(services) and retail sales
-UK PMI(services)
| USD/INR | 75.68 | 75.28 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0850 | 1.0970 | 1.0820 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2380 | 1.2476 | 1.2349 |
| USD/JPY | 107.89 | 108.11 | 107.01 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0883 | 1.0946 | 1.1032 | 1.1095 | 1.0796 | 1.0734 | 1.0647 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2406 | 1.2463 | 1.2533 | 1.2589 | 1.2336 | 1.2279 | 1.2210 |
| USD/JPY | 107.68
|
108.35 | 108.78 | 109.44 | 107.25 | 106.58 | 106.15
|
| USD/INR | 75.54 | 75.80 | 75.94 | 75.40 | 75.14 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0970/1.0780 | 1.1240/1.1495 | SIDE | DN<1.0830 |
| GBP/USD | 1.22/1.2025 | 1.2725 | SIDE | DN<1.20 |
| USD/JPY | 107.65/105.90 | 112 | UP | DN<107.60 |
| USD/INR | 74.40 | 75.90/76.30 | UP | SIDE<74.40 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9540/.92 | 0.99 | DN | UP>0.99 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.43. 50 day moving average is at 72.61.200 day moving average is at 71.08. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 74.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP:75.84 ,S1:75.58, S2:75.26, R1:76.16, R2: 76.42
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1240 and later at 1.1495. Major support is at 1.0870 and later at 1.0770. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important resistance at 1.15. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2725. Important support is at 1.20.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 101.20. Next important resistance is at 112. Important support is at 107.65.
