FX MORNING UPDATE                                                                                      

USDINR opened at 75.30 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.10-75.62 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.59 , gain of 74 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.85. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.84 on Friday. Apr USD/INR closed at 75.98, gain of 72 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.26. April Euro/INR closed at 83.59, GBP/INR at 93.86 and Yen/INR at 69.91.

FII’S nett sold  Rs 56047 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 52909 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 4.38% y’day. DOW declined 915 points (4.06%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 1.47% and Hang seng declined 1.32% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1143,Pound at 1.2457,Yen at 107.90.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1630 and WT1Crude at USD 21.84/Brent at USD 25.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.75% and 3 m libor closed at 1.267%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.21%.

Economic news: Global Equity markets were relatively quiet y’day. Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped to 94.5 in March, down from 103.4. Industrial Confidence dropped form -6.2 to -10.8. Services Confidence dropped from 11.1 to -2.2. Consumer Confidence dropped from -6.6 to -11.6.

Data highlights : US Pending home sales climbed 2.4% m/m.

Tuesday’s calendar:- US Chicago PMI, S&P House price index and consumer confidence

-EU CPI                                                                                                           

USD/INR   75.62 75.10
EUR/USD 1.1143 1.1147 1.0955
GBP/USD 1.2457 1.2486 1.2131
USD/JPY 107.90 109.71 107.75

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1081 1.1208  1.1273    1.1015 1.0889  
GBP/USD 1.2358 1.2585  1.2713    1.2230 1.2003  
USD/JPY 108.45


109.15  110.41    107.19 106.49  


USD/INR 75.43 75.78 75.95   75.24 74.91  


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.0970/1.0780 1.1240/1.1495 SIDE DN<1.0830
GBP/USD 1.22/1.2025 1.2725 SIDE DN<1.20
USD/JPY 107.65/105.90 112 UP DN<107.60
USD/INR 74.40 75.90/76.30 UP SIDE<74.40
USD/CHF 0.9540/.92 0.99 DN UP>0.99

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.26. 50 day moving average is at 72.51.200 day moving average is at 71.08. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 74.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.


Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP:75.83 ,S1:75.48, S2:74.98, R1:76.33, R2: 76.68                                

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1240 and later at 1.1495. Major support is at 1.0870 and later at 1.0770. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important resistance at 1.15. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and below major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2725. Important support is at 1.20.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 101.20. Next important resistance is at 112. Important support is at 107.65.





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