USDINR opened gap down at 74.49 on Friday and the pair traded in the 74.31-75.40 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.85 , loss of thirty ps for USD as against prior close of 75.15. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.84 on Friday. The pair was volatile as it swung both sides sharply. Apr USD/INR closed at 75.25, loss of forty three ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.68. April Euro/INR closed at 83.30, GBP/INR at 92.40 and Yen/INR at 69.40.
FII’S nett sold Rs 56047 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 52909 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.22% on Friday. DOW declined 915 points (4.06%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 3.88% and Hang seng climbed 0.56% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1143,Pound at 1.2457,Yen at 107.90.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1630 and WT1Crude at USD 21.84/Brent at USD 25.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.75% and 3 m libor closed at 1.267%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.14%.
Economic news: RBI cut repo rate by 75 bps to 4.4% and reverse repo by 90 bps to 4%. CRR was cut by 1% to 3%. RBI’S monetary easing and change in reserve ratios will free Rs 2.7 lac Cr. Banks are mandated to invest extra CRR liquidity in corporate CP’S of investment grades. EMI’S under term loan is deferred for 3 months and interest on working capital is also defered by 3 months. Banks are also advised to reassess working capital requirement. Govt’s welfare measures of 1.7 lac Cr announced on Thursday along with RBI rate cut could ease the pain of poor and borrowers to some extent.
Data highlights : US Personal income climbed 0.6% m/m, spending climbed 0.2% m/m and core PCE index climbed 0.2% m/m.
Monday’s calendar:- US Pending home sales
|
USD/INR |
|
75.40 |
74.31 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.1143 |
1.1147 |
1.0955 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2457 |
1.2486 |
1.2131 |
|
USD/JPY |
107.90 |
109.71 |
107.75 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
CurrencyPairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1081 |
1.1208 |
1.1273 |
|
1.1015 |
1.0889 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2358 |
1.2585 |
1.2713 |
|
1.2230 |
1.2003 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
108.45
|
109.15 |
110.41 |
|
107.19 |
106.49 |
|
|
USD/INR |
74.85 |
75.40 |
75.94 |
|
74.30 |
73.76 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Curency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0970/1.0780 |
1.1240/1.1495 |
SIDE |
DN<1.0830 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.22/1.2025 |
1.2725 |
SIDE |
DN<1.20 |
|
USD/JPY |
107.65/105.90 |
112 |
UP |
DN<107.60 |
|
USD/INR |
74.40 |
76.30 |
UP |
SIDE<74.40 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.9540/.92 |
0.99 |
DN |
UP>0.99 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.06. 50 day moving average is at 72.42.200 day moving average is at 71.08. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 74.40. Spot closed at its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: ,S1:, S2:, R1:, R2:
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1240 and later at 1.1495. Major support is at 1.0870 and later at 1.0770. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important resistance at 1.15. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2725. Important support is at 1.20.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 101.20. Next important resistance is at 112. Important support is at 107.65.
