USDINR opened at 75.88 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.09-75.96 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.15 , loss of ninety ps for USD as against prior close of 76.10. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.24 y’day. March USD/INR closed at 75.10, loss of one Rupee and five ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.15. March Euro/INR closed at 82.52, GBP/INR at 89.92 and Yen/INR at 68.51. RBI sold USD y’day morning.
FII’S nett sold Rs 46165 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 46962 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 3.89% y’day. DOW climbed 1351 points (6.38%) Y’day. Nikkei declined 4.51% and Hang seng declined 0.74% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1031,Pound at 1.2182,Yen at 108.61.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1637 and WT1Crude at USD 23/Brent at USD 26.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.82% and 3 m libor closed at 1.267%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.22%.
Economic news: Indian Govt unveiled a package to help the poorest section of the society. FM hinted that more measures are on the anvil.
Fed Chairman said that the US may “well be in a recession”. But this is different from a “normal recession” as “there is nothing fundamentally wrong with US economy”. And, “quite the contrary, US is starting from a very strong position”. Also, it’s not a “typical downturn” and “at a certain point, we will get the virus under control and confidence will return.”
Powell also said Fed’s recent measures will provide capital to businesses that need it. “When it comes to this lending, we’re not going to run out of ammunition, that doesn’t happen,” he added. “We still have policy room in other dimensions to support the economy.”
BoE voted unanimously to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 0.1%, as well as keeping asset purchase target at GBP 645B. The MPC will “continue to monitor the situation closely and, consistent with its remit, stands ready to respond further as necessary to guard against an unwarranted tightening in financial conditions, and support the economy.”
The central bank said that the “nature of the economic shock” from coronavirus pandemic is “very different from” those the central bank has previously had to responde to. The “scale and duration” will be “large and sharp but should ultimately prove temporary”.
Data highlights : US GDP was finalised at 2.1% y/y for last quarter and weekly jobless claims surged to 3.28 mn.
-UK retail sales declined -0.3% m/m.
Friday’s calendar:- US Personal income, spending and core PCE index.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.90. 50 day moving average is at 72.34.200 day moving average is at 71.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 74.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 75.47,S1:74.69, S2:74.28, R1:75.88, R2:76.66
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1060. Major support is at 1.0570 and later at 1.0340. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important resistance at 1.15. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.32 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.20. Important support is at 1.14.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 101.20. Next important resistance is at 112. Important support is at 108.30 and later at 107.65.