USDINR opened at 76.09 on Tuesday and the pair traded in the 75.93-76.29 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.10 , loss of nineteen ps for USD as against prior close of 76.29. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.15 on Tuesday. March USD/INR closed at 76.15, loss of twenty five ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.40. March Euro/INR closed at 82.75, GBP/INR at 89.59 and Yen/INR at 68.72.
FII’S nett sold Rs 46165 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 46962 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 12.98% y’day. DOW declined 582 points (3.04%) Y’day. Nikkei climbed 2.02% and Hang seng declined 4.86% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0808,Pound at 1.1618,Yen at 110.45.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1591 and WT1Crude at USD 24.60/Brent at USD 28.25.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.78% and 3 m libor closed at 0.84%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.30%.
Economic news: FM announced deferment of various statutory compliances to end of June. US Equity indices rallied on Tuesday on finalisation of USD 2 trn fiscal package by US Congress. Fed’s move to press QE without limits also buoyed sentiment.
EU and UK business activity as implied by PMI data has collapsed to a level not seen even at the height of financial crisis. EU and UK GDP could decline by 2% in Q1 and even worse in Q2.
Data highlights : US new home sales climbed to 765K. Durables order climbed 1.2% m/m.
-EU PMI(mfrg) declined to 44.8 and PMI(services) declined to 28.4.
-UK PMI(mfrg) climbed to 48 and PMI(services) declined to 35.7.
-UK CPI climbed 1.7% y/y, PPI(output) declined -0.3% m/m and RPI climbed 2.5% y/y.
Thursday’s calendar:- US GDP and weekly jobless claims
-UK retail sales and BOE meeting.
| USD/INR | 76.29 | 75.93 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0808 | 1.0827 | 1.0659 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1618 | 1.1715 | 1.1448 |
| USD/JPY | 110.45 | 111.58 | 109.67 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0750 | 1.0841 | 1.0918 | 1.1009 | 1.0673 | 1.0582 | 1.0505 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1586 | 1.1724 | 1.1853 | 1.1991 | 1.1457 | 1.1391 | 1.1190 |
| USD/JPY | 110.69
|
111.71 | 112.61 | 113.63 | 109.80 | 108.77 | 107.88
|
| USD/INR | 76.10 | 76.28 | 76.47 | 75.91 | 75.73 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1060/1.0970 | 1.1495 | DN | UP>1.1050 |
| GBP/USD | 1.14 | 1.20 | DN | SIDE>1.20 |
| USD/JPY | 108.30/107.76 | 112 | UP | DN<107.60 |
| USD/INR | 74.40 | 77-78 | UP | SIDE<74.40 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9625 | 1.00 | UP | DN<0.9625 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.73. 50 day moving average is at 72.25.200 day moving average is at 70.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 74.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 76.11,S1:75.74, S2:75.13, R1:76.76, R2:77.09
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1060. Major support is at 1.0570 and later at 1.0340. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important resistance at 1.15. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.32 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.20. Important support is at 1.14.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 101.20. Next important resistance is at 112. Important support is at 108.30 and later at 107.65.
