USDINR opened at 67.50 y’day and the pair traded in the 67.36-67.53 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.49, gain of  8 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.41.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.45. June USD/INR closed at 67.60, gain of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 67.55. June Euro/INR closed at 79.71, GBP/INR at 90.50 and Yen/INR at 61.36.

FII’S have bought Rs 2756 Cr of Indian Equities in June till date . FII’S have sold 475 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 6194 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 31788 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.52% y’day. DOW declined 1 point (-0.01%) Y’day.Nikkei climbed 0.33%  and Hang seng climbed 0.13% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1742, Pound at 1.3363,Yen at 110.61.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1298 and WT1Crude at USD 65.95.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.96% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.97%.        

Economic news: Indian CPI climbed to 4.87% in May, highest in 4 months. Food inflation climbed to 3.1%. Core inflation rose to 45 months high of 6.17%. RBI targets a median level of 4% inflation. RBI raised rates by 25 bps last week. IIP also climbed to 4.9% Mfrg output grew 5.2%. Mining, Capital goods also fared well due to base effect.

US and North Korean leaders signed agreement for denuclearization of Korean Peninsula. Markets are more focused on Fed meeting outcome and ECB rate decision.

US CPI accelerated to 6 month highs.


 Data Highlights: – US CPI climbed 0.2% m/m.


-German Zew survey climbed to -16.1 and EU Zew survey declined to -12.6.


-UK unemployment rate was reported at 4.2% and claimant count change was at -7.7k.       


Wednesday’s calendar:– US PPI and Fed rate decision and economic projections.


-EU industrial production and employment change q/q.


-UK CPI, RPI and PPI(output)


USD/INR   67.53 67.36
EUR/USD 1.1742 1.1809 1.1734
GBP/USD 1.3363 1.3425 1.3344
USD/JPY 110.61 110.54 110.10


Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1764 1.1794 1.1839 1.1869 1.1719 1.1689 1.1644
GBP/USD 1.3381 1.3418 1.3462 1.3499 1.3337 1.3300 1.3256
USD/JPY 110.36


110.62 110.80 111.06


110.18 109.92 109.74


USD/INR 67.46 67.56 67.63   67.39 67.29  



Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1508 1.1840/1.1960 DN SIDE>1.1960
GBP/USD 1.3205/1.3050 1.3450/1.3550 DN SIDE>1.3450
USD/JPY 108.10/107.78 111.40/113.75 SIDE DN<108.10
USD/INR 67.30/66.85 67.78 SIDE UP>67.80
USD/CHF 0.9650 1.0060 UP  DN <0.9575

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.60. 50 day moving average is at 66.73. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 68.42 . Important support zone is at 66.85. Important resistance is  at 67.80 and later at 68.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  


Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 67.56,S1:67.49, S2:67.38, R1:67.67, R2:67.74.

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1840 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3205 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3450 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.3205 and later at 1.3050.          

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.40. Important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is  111.40 and later at 113.75.                                   

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