FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 75.69 Y’day and the pair traded in the 75.69-76.29 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.29 , gain of one Rupee and 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.19. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.88 y’day. March USD/INR closed at 76.40, gain of one Rupee and 16 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.24. March Euro/INR closed at 81.58, GBP/INR at 87.98 and Yen/INR at 68.81.
FII’S nett sold Rs 46165 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 46962 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 12.98% y’day. DOW declined 582 points (3.04%) Y’day. Nikkei climbed 2.02% and Hang seng declined 4.86% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0808,Pound at 1.1618,Yen at 110.45.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1591 and WT1Crude at USD 24.60/Brent at USD 28.25.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.78% and 3 m libor closed at 0.84%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.38%.
Economic news: Indian Equity indices slumped 12% and suffered the worst one day loss. Rupee declined more than One Rupee, notwithstanding RBI’S Dollar liquidity supply. Fed announced a new round of aggressive measures to support the US economy against coronavirus pandemic impacts. In particular, Fed will purchase bonds to keep borrowing costs low without specifying a limit. There will also be programs to ensure credit flows into businesses and governments.
Data highlights : No major data.
Tuesday’s calendar:- US new home sales
-EU PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services)
-UK PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services)
| USD/INR | 76.29 | 75.69 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0808 | 1.0827 | 1.0659 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1618 | 1.1715 | 1.1448 |
| USD/JPY | 110.45 | 111.58 | 109.67 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0750 | 1.0841 | 1.0918 | 1.1009 | 1.0673 | 1.0582 | 1.0505 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1586 | 1.1724 | 1.1853 | 1.1991 | 1.1457 | 1.1391 | 1.1190 |
| USD/JPY | 110.69
|
111.71 | 112.61 | 113.63 | 109.80 | 108.77 | 107.88
|
| USD/INR | 76.09 | 76.49 | 76.69 | 75.89 | 75.49 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1060/1.0970 | 1.1495 | DN | UP>1.1050 |
| GBP/USD | 1.14 | 1.20 | DN | SIDE>1.20 |
| USD/JPY | 108.30/107.76 | 112 | UP | DN<107.60 |
| USD/INR | 74.40 | 77 | UP | SIDE<74.40 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9625 | 1.00 | UP | DN<0.9625 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.53. 50 day moving average is at 72.15.200 day moving average is at 70.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 74.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 76.11,S1:75.74, S2:75.13, R1:76.76, R2:77.09
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1060. Major support is at 1.0570 and later at 1.0340. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important resistance at 1.15. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.32 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.20. Important support is at 1.14.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 101.20. Next important resistance is at 112. Important support is at 108.30 and later at 107.65.
