FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 74.78 on Friday and the pair traded in the 74.71-75.20 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.19 , gain of 20 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.99. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75 on Friday. March USD/INR closed at 75.24, gain of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.09. March Euro/INR closed at 80.62, GBP/INR at 88.46 and Yen/INR at 68.32.
FII’S nett sold Rs 46165 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 46962 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 5.83% on Friday. DOW declined 913 points (4.55%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 1.04% and Hang seng climbed 5.05% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.0695,Pound at 1.1643,Yen at 110.82.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1501 and WT1Crude at USD 23.65/Brent at USD 27.40.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.94% and 3 m libor closed at 0.84%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.26%.
Economic news: US indices slumped again on Friday even as Asian and European markets staged a corrective rally. Oil fell and USD gained again in NY time. Indian Govt is reportedly working on an economic package with focus on tourism and travel.
Data highlights : US existing home sales climbed to 5.77 mn.
Monday’s calendar:- No major data release.
| USD/INR | 75.20 | 74.71 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0695 | 1.0832 | 1.0638 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1643 | 1.1934 | 1.1409 |
| USD/JPY | 110.82 | 111.52 | 109.31 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0721 | 1.0805 | 1.0916 | 1.0610 | 1.0526 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.1662 | 1.1915 | 1.2187 | 1.1390 | 1.1137 | ||
| USD/JPY | 110.55
|
111.79 | 112.76 | 109.58 | 108.34 |
|
|
| USD/INR | 75.03 | 75.35 | 75.52 | 74.86 | 74.54 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1060/1.0970 | 1.1495 | DN | UP>1.1050 |
| GBP/USD | 1.14 | 1.20 | DN | SIDE>1.20 |
| USD/JPY | 108.30/107.76 | 112 | UP | DN<107.60 |
| USD/INR | 74.40 | 77 | UP | SIDE<74.40 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9625 | 1.00 | UP | DN<0.9625 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.30. 50 day moving average is at 72.06.200 day moving average is at 70.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.97. Important support is at 74.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 75.10,S1:74.95, S2:74.66, R1:75.39, R2:75.54
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1060. Major support is at 1.0570 and later at 1.0340. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important resistance at 1.15. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.32 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.20. Important support is at 1.14.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 101.20. Next important resistance is at 112. Important support is at 108.30 and later at 107.65.
