FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened gap up at 73.96 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.78-75.31 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.99 , gain of 76 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.23. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.05 y’day. March USD/INR closed at 75.09, gain of 68 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.41. March Euro/INR closed at 80.84, GBP/INR at 87.04 and Yen/INR at 68.45.
FII’S nett sold Rs 21435 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 11784 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 2.41% y’day. DOW climbed 188 points (0.95%) y’day. Nikkei declined 1.04% and Hang seng declined 2.61% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0709,Pound at 1.1599,Yen at 110.52.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1484 and WT1Crude at USD 22.80/Brent at USD 26.10.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.159% and 3 m libor closed at 0.84%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.38%.
Economic news: RBI intervened at the closing hours to stem Rupee decline. Fall in CNY and USD liquidity shortage resulted in major gains for USD. Dollar continued to surge against majors. German Ifo institute said in its spring forecast that the global economy is “collapsing” as a result of coronavirus pandemic. Global GDP would grow only 0.1% this year, compared with 2.6% last year. World trade would see a decline of -1.7%.
Data highlights : – US weekly jobless claims rose to 281k and phily fed survey declined to -12.7.
-US current account deficit narrowed to USD -110B in Q4, versus expectation of USD -109B.
Friday’s calendar:- US existing home sales.
| USD/INR | 75.31 | 74.78 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0709 | 1.0950 | 1.0655 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1599 | 1.1792 | 1.1414 |
| USD/JPY | 110.52 | 111.36 | 108.20 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0753 | 1.0851 | 1.1048 | 1.1146 | 1.0556 | 1.0458 | 1.0261 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1567 | 1.1720 | 1.1946 | 1.2099 | 1.1342 | 1.1188 | 1.0963 |
| USD/JPY | 110.29
|
112.38 | 113.45 | 115.54 | 109.22 | 107.13 | 106.06
|
| USD/INR | 75.02 | 75.27 | 75.55 | 74.73 | 74.49 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1060/1.0970 | 1.1495 | UP | DN<1.1050 |
| GBP/USD | 1.22/1.1960 | 1.2725 | DN | SIDE>1.2725 |
| USD/JPY | 106/101.20 | 109 | SIDE | DN<106 |
| USD/INR | 73.80/73.55/72.90 | 74.50 | UP | SIDE<73.80 |
| USD/CHF | 0.92 | 0.9540/0.97 | DN | UP>0.97 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 72.93. 50 day moving average is at 71.93.200 day moving average is at 70.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.73. Important support is at 73.80/73.55 and next important resistance is at 74.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 74.34,S1:74.12, S2:73.84, R1:74.62, R2:74.84
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.15. Major support is at 1.1060 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0775.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.32 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2770. Important support is at 1.22/1.1960.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.20. Next important resistance is at 109. Important support is at 106 and later at 101.20.
