USDINR opened at 74.14 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.86-74.31 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.24 , loss of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.27. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.27 y’day. March USD/INR closed at 74.40, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.41. March Euro/INR closed at 82.10, GBP/INR at 90.39 and Yen/INR at 69.71.
FII’S nett sold Rs 21435 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 11784 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 2.5% y’day. DOW climbed 1048 points (5.48%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.06% and Hang seng climbed 0.87% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0988,Pound at 1.2110,Yen at 107.25.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1534 and WT1Crude at USD 27.5/Brent at USD 29.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.997% and 3 m libor closed at 0.84%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.21%.
Economic news: USD surged against Euro and Pound. EUR/USD’S break of 1.1050 implies resumption of decline to test 1.08 levels. German sentiment survey deteriorated further. US markets rebounded on reports that US administration is considering USD 1 trn package that includes tax relief and direct benefit/ deferred payment.
Data highlights : – US retail sales declined -0.5% m/m and industrial production climbed 0.6% m/m.
-EU and German Zew survey deteriorated to -49.5.
-UK claimant count change increased to 17.3k and unemployment rate increased to 3.9%.
Wednesday’s calendar:- US building permits and housing starts
-EU CPI
| USD/INR | 74.31 | 73.86 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0988 | 1.1189 | 1.0956 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2110 | 1.2270 | 1.2004 |
| USD/JPY | 107.25 | 107.86 | 106.08 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1054 | 1.1152 | 1.1287 | 1.1385 | 1.0919 | 1.0821 | 1.0686 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2130 | 1.2256 | 1.2396 | 1.2522 | 1.1990 | 1.1864 | 1.1724 |
| USD/JPY | 107.11
|
108.14 | 108.89 | 109.91 | 106.36 | 105.33 | 104.58
|
| USD/INR | 74.13 | 74.41 | 74.58 | 74.11 | 73.82 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1060/1.0970 | 1.1495 | UP | DN<1.1050 |
| GBP/USD | 1.22/1.1960 | 1.2725 | DN | SIDE>1.2725 |
| USD/JPY | 106/101.20 | 109 | SIDE | DN<106 |
| USD/INR | 73.80/73.55/72.90 | 74.50 | UP | SIDE<73.80 |
| USD/CHF | 0.92 | 0.9540/0.97 | DN | UP>0.97 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 72.79. 50 day moving average is at 71.89.200 day moving average is at 70.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.73. Important support is at 73.80/73.55 and next important resistance is at 74.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 74.31,S1:74.06, S2:73.70, R1:74.68, R2:74.92
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.15. Major support is at 1.1060 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0775.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.32 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2770. Important support is at 1.22/1.1960.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.20. Next important resistance is at 109. Important support is at 106 and later at 101.20.
