USDINR opened at 74.39 on Friday and the pair traded in the 73.81-74.50 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.91 , loss of 30 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.21. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.06 on Friday. March USD/INR closed at 74.10, loss of 35 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.45. March Euro/INR closed at 82.79, GBP/INR at 93.03 and Yen/INR at 69.64.
FII’S nett sold Rs 21435 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 11784 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 3.81% on Friday. DOW climbed 1985 points (9.36%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 6.08% and Hang seng declined 1.14% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1106,Pound at 1.2277,Yen at 107.93.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1529 and WT1Crude at USD 32.97/Brent at USD 34.72.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.95% and 3 m libor closed at 0.78%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.32%.
Economic news: Indian and Global stocks rebounded, perhaps on profit taking of short positions as there is no material change in Covid-19 development. Italy has reported 15000 cases and the virus is fast spreading in Europe. Indian Equity exchanges had to halt trading within 15 minutes of opening on Friday as indices crashed 10%. Hectic buying at lower levels reversed opening losses and indices closed with gains. RBI also intervened to sell USD at 74.50. Govt increased excise duty on petrol by Rs 3 per litre to shore up revenue. Decrease in Oil prices has provided a cushion to shore up Rs 40000 Cr revenue.
China’s PBoC announced cut in reserve requirement ratio for the second time this year to release CNY 550B of liquidity.
Data highlights : – No major data release.
Monday’s calendar:- NY mfrg index
| USD/INR | 74.50 | 73.81 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1106 | 1.1222 | 1.1055 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2277 | 1.2626 | 1.2267 |
| USD/JPY | 107.93 | 108.50 | 104.68 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1127 | 1.1200 | 1.1294 | 1.1032 | 1.0960 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.2390 | 1.2513 | 1.2749 | 1.2154 | 1.2031 | ||
| USD/JPY | 107.03
|
109.39 | 110.85 | 105.56 | 103.21 |
|
|
| USD/INR | 74.07 | 74.33 | 74.76 | 73.64 | 73.38 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1060/1.0970 | 1.1495 | UP | DN<1.1050 |
| GBP/USD | 1.22/1.1960 | 1.2725 | DN | SIDE>1.2725 |
| USD/JPY | 106/101.20 | 109 | SIDE | DN<106 |
| USD/INR | 73.55/72.90/72.45 | 74.50 | UP | SIDE<73.80 |
| USD/CHF | 0.92 | 0.9540/0.97 | DN | UP>0.97 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 72.50. 50 day moving average is at 71.72.200 day moving average is at 70.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.73. Important support is at 73.55/72.90 and next important resistance is at 74.50. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 74.28,S1:73.82, S2:73.55, R1:74.55, R2:75.01
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.15. Major support is at 1.1060 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0775.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.32 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2770. Important support is at 1.22/1.1960.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.20. Next important resistance is at 109. Important support is at 106 and later at 101.20.
