USDINR opened at 74.28 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.08-74.34 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.21 , gain of 57 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.64. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.17 y’day. March USD/INR closed at 74.45, gain of 60 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.85. March Euro/INR closed at 83.55, GBP/INR at 94.73 and Yen/INR at 71.68.
FII’S nett sold Rs 5656 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 1807 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day. DOW declined 2352 points (10%) y’day. Nikkei declined 4.41% and Hang seng declined 3.66% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1186,Pound at 1.2546,Yen at 104.91.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1563 and WT1Crude at USD 30.80/Brent at USD 32.60.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.754% and 3 m libor closed at 0.78%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.13%.
Economic news: Indian CPI eased to 6.58% in Feb, as vegetable and food prices eased. IIP climbed 2%, while manufacturing grew by 1.5%. Indian CAD shrunk to 0.2% of GDP (USD 12.7 bn) in Q3. FDI rose to USD 10 bn in Q3. FX reserves stands at USD 487 bn. RBI announced USD 2 bn USD swap to mitigate USD volatility.Global stocks slumped as WHO lablled Covid-19 as pandemic. US President banned entry of EU citizens into US and announced an embargo on trade from EU for 30 days.
ECB introduced additional TLTRO and expanded QE by 120B for this year.
Data highlights : – US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 211k and PPI declined -0.6% m/m.
-EU industrial prodcution climbed 2.3% m/m.
Friday’s calendar:- No major data release.
| USD/INR | 74.34 | 74.08 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1186 | 1.1333 | 1.1056 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2546 | 1.2851 | 1.2492 |
| USD/JPY | 104.91 | 106.07 | 103.10 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1191 | 1.1326 | 1.1468 | 1.1603 | 1.1049 | 1.0914 | 1.0772 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2638 | 1.2784 | 1.2997 | 1.3143 | 1.2425 | 1.2279 | 1.2066 |
| USD/JPY | 104.61
|
106.12 | 107.58 | 109.09 | 103.15 | 101.64 | 100.18
|
| USD/INR | 74.22 | 74.36 | 74.48 | 74.10 | 73.96 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.11/1.0970 | 1.14 | UP | DN<1.0970 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2725 | 1.3070/1.3270 | SIDE | UP>1.3070 |
| USD/JPY | 104.50 | 106.50 | DN | UP>108.30 |
| USD/INR | 73.30/72.75 | 74.15 | UP | DN<72.40 |
| USD/CHF | 0.92 | 0.9540/0.97 | DN | UP>0.97 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 72.36. 50 day moving average is at 71.72.200 day moving average is at 70.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.73. Important support is at 73.30/72.75 and next important resistance is at 74.45. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 74.42,S1:74.31, S2:74.18, R1:74.55, R2:74.66
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.14. Major support is at 1.11 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0775.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bullish and above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2725 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.3070/1.3270. Important support is at 1.2725.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.20. Next important resistance is at 106.50 and later at 108.30. Important support is at 104.50.
