USDINR opened at 73.86 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.55-74.01 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.64 , loss of 44 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.08. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.81 y’day. March USD/INR closed at 73.85, loss of 48 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.33. March Euro/INR closed at 83.73, GBP/INR at 95.44 and Yen/INR at 70.40.
FII’S nett sold Rs 5656 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 1807 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day. DOW declined 1464 points (5.87%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.85% and Hang seng climbed 1.41% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1273,Pound at 1.2818,Yen at 104.69.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1643 and WT1Crude at USD 33.27/Brent at USD 36.15.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.82% and 3 m libor closed at 0.78%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.13%.
Economic news: BoE announced emergency rate cut of -50bps to 0.25% on unanimous vote. Asset purchase target is kept unchanged at GBP 435B. Also, a new Term Funding scheme with addition incentives for SMEs is introduced.
The central bank said, “the reduction in Bank Rate will help to support business and consumer confidence at a difficult time, to bolster the cash flows of businesses and households, and to reduce the cost, and to improve the availability, of finance.”
In a coordianted fiscal move, UK announced GBP 30 bn package to support small and medium business. UK GDP grew 0.0% mom in January, below expectation of 0.2% mom
Focus is on ECB meeting and Indian CPI, IIP data.
Data highlights : – US CPI climbed 0.1% m/m.
-UK Industrial and manufacturing production declined -2.9% y/y and -3.6% y/y respectively.
Thursday’s calendar:- US Weekly jobless claims and PPI
-EU industrial prodcution.
| USD/INR | 74.01 | 73.55 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1273 | 1.1366 | 1.1251 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2818 | 1.2977 | 1.2807 |
| USD/JPY | 104.69 | 105.33 | 104.11 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1293 | 1.1335 | 1.1408 | 1.1450 | 1.1220 | 1.1178 | 1.1105 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2867 | 1.2927 | 1.3038 | 1.3098 | 1.2757 | 1.2696 | 1.2586 |
| USD/JPY | 104.66
|
105.21 | 105.89 | 106.44 | 103.99 | 103.43 | 102.76
|
| USD/INR | 73.73 | 73.91 | 74.19 | 73.45 | 73.27 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.11/1.0970 | 1.14 | UP | DN<1.0970 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2725 | 1.3070/1.3270 | SIDE | UP>1.3070 |
| USD/JPY | 104.50 | 106.50 | DN | UP>108.30 |
| USD/INR | 73.30/72.75 | 74.15 | UP | DN<72.40 |
| USD/CHF | 0.92 | 0.9540/0.97 | DN | UP>0.97 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 72.22. 50 day moving average is at 71.61.200 day moving average is at 70.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.73. Important support is at 73.30/72.75 and next important resistance is at 74.15. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 73.95,S1:73.64, S2:73.45, R1:74.14, R2:74.45
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.14. Major support is at 1.11 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0775.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bullish and above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2725 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.3070/1.3270. Important support is at 1.2725.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.20. Next important resistance is at 106.50 and later at 108.30. Important support is at 104.50.
