FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 74.04 on Monday and the pair traded in the 73.86-74.18 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.78 , gain of 46 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.32. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.95 on Monday. March USD/INR closed at 74.33, gain of 33 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74. March Euro/INR closed at 84.90, GBP/INR at 97.10 and Yen/INR at 72.75. RBI sold USD at around 74 levels.
FII’S nett sold Rs 5656 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 1807 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 4.90% on Monday. DOW climbed 1167 points (4.8%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.85% and Hang seng climbed 1.41% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1326,Pound at 1.2911,Yen at 104.85.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1657 and WT1Crude at USD 35.27/Brent at USD 38.75.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.68% and 3 m libor closed at 1%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.07%.
Economic news: US markets rebounded as US President pledged to announce stimulus measures on tax and insurance premiums. Eurozone GDP grew 0.1% qoq in Q4, unrevised from initial estimate. Over the year, GDP grew 1.0% yoy.
Japanese government announced a second coronavirus relief package that is worth JPY 430.8B. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged to “carry out necessary and sufficient economic and fiscal management without hesitation.
Data highlights : – EU sntix investor confidence dipped to -17.1 and German industrial production climbed 3% m/m.
Wednesday’s calendar:- US CPI
-UK Industrial and manufacturing production.
| USD/INR | 74.18 | 73.86 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1326 | 1.1425 | 1.1275 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2911 | 1.3089 | 1.2869 |
| USD/JPY | 104.85 | 105.92 | 102.71 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1338 | 1.1401 | 1.1488 | 1.1551 | 1.1251 | 1.1188 | 1.1101 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2955 | 1.3041 | 1.3175 | 1.3261 | 1.2821 | 1.2735 | 1.2601 |
| USD/JPY | 104.56
|
106.41 | 107.77 | 109.62 | 103.20 | 101.35 | 99.99
|
| USD/INR | 74.04 | 74.22 | 74.36 | 73.90 | 73.72 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.11/1.0970 | 1.14 | UP | DN<1.0970 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2725 | 1.3070/1.3270 | SIDE | UP>1.3070 |
| USD/JPY | 104.50 | 106.50 | DN | UP>108.30 |
| USD/INR | 72.90/72.40/72 | 74 | UP | DN<72.40 |
| USD/CHF | 0.92 | 0.9540/0.97 | DN | UP>0.97 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 72.11. 50 day moving average is at 71.61.200 day moving average is at 70.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.73. Important support is at 72.90/72.40 and next important resistance is at 74. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 74.31,S1:74.12, S2:73.91, R1:74.52, R2:74.71
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.14. Major support is at 1.11 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0775.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bullish and above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2725 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.3070/1.3270. Important support is at 1.2725.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.20. Next important resistance is at 106.50 and later at 108.30. Important support is at 104.50.
