USDINR opened at 73.90 on Friday and the pair traded in the 73.53-74.08 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.78 , gain of 46 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.32. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.66 on Friday. March USD/INR closed at 74, gain of 47 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.53. March Euro/INR closed at 83.85, GBP/INR at 96.25 and Yen/INR at 79.25. RBI sold USD at around 74 levels.
FII’S nett sold Rs 5656 Cr of Indian Equities in March till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 1807 Cr of Indian debt securities in March till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 2.48% on friday. DOW declined 256 points (0.98%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 2.72% and Hang seng declined 2.32% on friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1284,Pound at 1.3050,Yen at 105.28.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1674 and WT1Crude at USD 41.61/Brent at USD 45.54.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.70% and 3 m libor closed at 1%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.18%.
Economic news: US non-farm payrolls rose 273k in February, well above expectation of 178k. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Global stocks continued to decline steeply as corona virus spread has gone beyond 1 lac cases with 3800 deaths. USD was sold against Euro on aggressive rate cut by Fed with markets pricing two more rate cuts this year. Crude fell as OPEC plans to cut production by 1.5 mbpd has been resisted by Russia.
Indian markets was in sense of panic over Yes bank moratorium. Though FM and RBI have assured investors and depositors of a quick revival plan for Yes bank, there is a deep sense of fear over intensification of financial systemic issues.
Data highlights : -German factory orders climbed 5.5% m/m.
Monday’s calendar:- EU sntix investor confidence and German industrial production.
| USD/INR | 74.08 | 73.53 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1284 | 1.1356 | 1.1213 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3050 | 1.3058 | 1.2950 |
| USD/JPY | 105.28 | 106.35 | 105 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1284 | 1.1355 | 1.1427 | 1.1212 | 1.1141 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3019 | 1.3088 | 1.3127 | 1.2980 | 1.2911 | ||
| USD/JPY | 105.54
|
106.08 | 106.89 | 104.73 | 104.19 |
|
|
| USD/INR | 73.79 | 74.06 | 74.35 | 73.50 | 73.23 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.11/1.0970 | 1.14 | UP | DN<1.0970 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2725 | 1.3070/1.3270 | SIDE | UP>1.3070 |
| USD/JPY | 104.50 | 106.50 | DN | UP>108.30 |
| USD/INR | 72.90/72.40/72 | 74 | UP | DN<72.40 |
| USD/CHF | 0.92 | 0.9540/0.97 | DN | UP>0.97 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.96. 50 day moving average is at 71.56.200 day moving average is at 70.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.73. Important support is at 72.90/72.40 and next important resistance is at 74. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 74.01,S1:73.73, S2:73.46, R1:74.28, R2:74.56
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.14. Major support is at 1.11 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0775.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bullish and above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2725 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.3070/1.3270. Important support is at 1.2725.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.20. Next important resistance is at 106.50 and later at 108.30. Important support is at 104.50.
