FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 73.08 Y’day and the pair traded in the 72.90-73.63 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.22 , loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.30. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.56 y’day. March USD/INR closed at 73.47, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.54. March Euro/INR closed at 81.97, GBP/INR at 93.94 and Yen/INR at 68.38.
FII’S nett bought Rs 1819 Cr of Indian Equities in Feb till date . FII’S have nett bought Rs 2096 Cr of Indian debt securities in Feb till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.43% y’day. DOW declined 785 points (2.94%) Y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.08% and Hang seng declined 0.24% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1168,Pound at 1.2820,Yen at 107.30.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1644 and WT1Crude at USD 47.70/Brent at USD 52.40.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.97% and 3 m libor closed at 1.31%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.23%.
Economic news: USD climbed against Euro, even as it fell against CNY. Gains in CNY is crucial to halting Rupee weakness. Rupee declined steeply to 73.63 and then recovered to close at 73.22. Global stocks rebounded following Fed rate cut.
Union cabinet approved merger of 10 PSB’s into four mega banks.
Data highlights : – US ADP employment report showed addition of 183 k jobs by pvt sector, more than expected and ISM( non mfrg) climbed to 57.3.
-German retail sales climbed 0.9% m/m, EU retail sales climbed 0.6% m/m and PMI(services) was finalised at 52.6.
-UK PMI(services) was reported at 53.2.
Thursday’s calendar:- US weekly jobless claims and factory orders.
| USD/INR | 73.64 | 72.90 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1168 | 1.1212 | 1.1096 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2820 | 1.2844 | 1.2759 |
| USD/JPY | 107.30 | 108.51 | 106.86 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1161 | 1.1226 | 1.1277 | 1.1342 | 1.1110 | 1.1045 | 1.0994 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2808 | 1.2857 | 1.2893 | 1.2942 | 1.2772 | 1.2723 | 1.2687 |
| USD/JPY | 107.48
|
108.10 | 109.14 | 109.76 | 106.45 | 105.82 | 104.79
|
| USD/INR | 73.25 | 73.60 | 73.99 | 72.86 | 72.51 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.09/1.0780 | 1.11 | SIDE | UP>1.11 |
| GBP/USD | 1.27 | 1.3070/1.3270 | SIDE | UP>1.3070 |
| USD/JPY | 107.65/106.50 | 112.40 | DN | UP>110 |
| USD/INR | 72.90/72.40/72 | 74 | UP | DN<72.40 |
| USD/CHF | 0.96 | 0.9840 | SIDE | UP>0.9840 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.73. 50 day moving average is at 71.46.200 day moving average is at 70.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.73. Important support is at 72.90/72.40 and next important resistance is at 74. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 73.50,S1:73.10, S2:72.73, R1:73.87, R2:74.27
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.11. Major support is at 1.09 and later at 1.0775. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1240.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways but still above major moving average.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3070 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.3070. Important support is at 1.27.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.20. Next important resistance is at 112.40. Important support is at 107.65/106.50.
