USDINR opened at 71.67 y’day and the pair traded in the 71.56-71.69 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.56 , loss of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.66. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.61 y’day. March USD/INR closed at 71.77, loss of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.89. March Euro/INR closed at 78.65, GBP/INR at 92.43 and Yen/INR at 65.31.
FII’S nett bought Rs 10750 Cr of Indian Equities in Feb till date . FII’S have nett bought Rs 10618 Cr of Indian debt securities in Feb till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.39% Y’day. DOW declined 1190 points (4.42%) Y’day. Nikkei declined 0.79% and Hang seng declined 0.74% Y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0987,Pound at 1.2889,Yen at 109.42.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1643 and WT1Crude at USD 46.52/Brent at USD 51.03.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.264% and 3 m libor closed at 1.71%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.33%.
Economic news: Euro climbed, US Yields declined and free fall of stock market continued on fear of Corona virus pandemic intensifying in parts of Europe.
China’s PBoC insisted that economy goals for 2020 can still be achieved in spite of the coronavirus outbreak, and pledged to have measures to ensure ample liquidity.
The second estimate of US Q4 GDP showed 2.1% annualized growth, unrevised, and unchanged from Q3’s reading. PCE price index was revised down from 1.6% to 1.3%. PCE core index was also revised down from 1.3% to 1.2%.
Data highlights : – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 219k, durables order declined -0.2% m/m.
-US GDP Q/Q climbed 2.1% q/q, Pending home sales climbed 5.2% m/m.
Friday’s calendar:- US Personal income, spending, core PCE index and ChIcago PMI
-Japanese CPI and unemployment rate.
| USD/INR | 71.69 | 71.56 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0987 | 1.1006 | 1.0885 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2889 | 1.2946 | 1.2860 |
| USD/JPY | 109.42 | 110.39 | 109.33 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0963 | 1.1041 | 1.1084 | 1.1162 | 1.0920 | 1.0842 | 1.0799 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2898 | 1.2936 | 1.2984 | 1.3022 | 1.2850 | 1.2812 | 1.2764 |
| USD/JPY | 109.78
|
110.23 | 110.84 | 111.28 | 109.17 | 108.72 | 108.11
|
| USD/INR | 71.60 | 71.64 | 71.73 | 71.51 | 71.47 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.05 | 1.0880/1.10 | DN | SIDE>1.10 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2875/1.27 | 1.3070/1.3270 | SIDE | UP>1.3070 |
| USD/JPY | 110.30 | 112.40 | UP | DN<108.30 |
| USD/INR | 71.50/71.30 | 72.05/72.25 | SIDE | DN<71.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.96 | 0.9840 | SIDE | UP>0.9840 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.44. 50 day moving average is at 71.32.200 day moving average is at 70.60. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.73. Important support is at 71.50/71.35 and next important resistance is at 72.05/72.25 Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 71.81,S1:71.70, S2:71.64, R1:71.87, R2:71.98
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.10. Major support is at 1.05. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1240. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1240.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways but still above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3070 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.3285. Important support is at 1.2855 and later at 1.27.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.30. Next important resistance is at 112.40. Important support is at 110.30/108.30.
