FX MORNING UPDATE

                                                                                

USDINR opened gap up at 71.89 y’day and the pair traded in the 71.76-72 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72 , gain of 34 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.66. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.58 on Thursday. Feb USD/INR closed at 72, gain of 33 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.67. Feb Euro/INR closed at 77.97, GBP/INR at 92.90 and Yen/INR at 63.94.

FII’S nett bought  Rs 10750 Cr of Indian Equities in Feb till date . FII’S have nett bought Rs 10618 Cr of Indian debt securities in Feb till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 2.08% Y’day. DOW declined 227 points (0.70%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.39% and Hang seng declined 1.79% Y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0848,Pound at 1.2964,Yen at 111.59.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1645 and WT1Crude at USD 53.45/Brent at USD 58.45.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.47% and 3 m libor closed at 1.71%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.33%.

Economic news: Rupee declined and USD surged on Monday as a surge in new cases of coronavirus globally, most notably in Italy, renewed concerns over the economic impact of the outbreak. Global and Indian Equities slumped, Gold rallied and treasury yields fell.

Data highlights : – German Ifo Business Climate rose to 96.1 in February, up from 95.9, beat expectation of 96.0.

Tuesday’s calendar: – US house price index and German GDP Q/Q.                    

                                                                                                                                               

                       

USD/INR   72 71.77
EUR/USD 1.0848 1.0863 1.0788
GBP/USD 1.2964 1.2981 1.2879
USD/JPY 111.59 112.18 111.49

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.0833 1.0878  1.0908    1.0803 1.0758  
GBP/USD 1.2941 1.3003  1.3043    1.2901 1.2839  
USD/JPY 111.75

 

112.01  112.44    111.32 111.06  

 

USD/INR 71.92 72.07 72.15   71.84 71.69  

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.05 1.0880/1.10 DN SIDE>1.10
GBP/USD 1.2875/1.27 1.3070/1.3270 SIDE UP>1.3070
USD/JPY 110.30 112.40 UP DN<108.30
USD/INR 71.50/71.30 72.05/72.25 SIDE DN<71.30
USD/CHF 0.96 0.9840 SIDE UP>0.9840

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.39. 50 day moving average is at 71.27.200 day moving average is at 70.60. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.73. Important support is at 71.50/71.35 and next important resistance is at 72.05/72.25 Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 71.95,S1:71.87, S2:71.71, R1:72.11, R2:72.19                                     

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.10. Major support is at 1.05. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1240. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1240.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways but still above major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3070 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.3285. Important support is at 1.2855 and later at 1.27.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.30. Next important resistance is at 112.40. Important support is  at 110.30/108.30.

 

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