FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 71.30 on Friday and the pair traded in the 71.29-71.41 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.37 on friday, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.33. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.38 on Friday. Feb USD/INR closed at 71.43, gain of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.39. Feb Euro/INR closed at 77.52, GBP/INR at 93.16 and Yen/INR at 65.10.
FII’S nett bought Rs 10425 Cr of Indian Equities in Feb till date . FII’S have nett bought Rs 12262 Cr of Indian debt securities in Feb till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.50% on Friday. DOW declined 25 points( 0.09%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.59% and Hang seng climbed 0.31% on friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.0831,Pound at 1.3047,Yen at 109.79.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1586 and WT1Crude at USD 52.25/Brent at USD 57.55.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.59% and 3 m libor closed at 1.71%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.43%.
Economic news: Eurozone GDP grew 0.1% qoq in Q4, matched expectations. Germany GDP was flat in Q4, below expectation of 0.1% qoq. For the year of 2019, the economy grew 0.6%, both price and seasonally adjusted. Euro continues to be under pressure on growth concerns and on fears that Chinese Coronavirus could affect export dependent economies like Germany.
Data highlights : – US retail sales climbed 0.3% m/m and Industrial production declined -0.3% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: – No major data release.
| USD/INR | 71.41 | 71.29 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0831 | 1.0862 | 1.0828 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3047 | 1.3063 | 1.3002 |
| USD/JPY | 109.79 | 109.90 | 109.69 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0840 | 1.0852 | 1.0874 | 1.0818 | 1.0806 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3037 | 1.3072 | 1.3098 | 1.3011 | 1.2976 | ||
| USD/JPY | 109.79
|
109.89 | 110 | 109.68 | 109.58 |
|
|
| USD/INR | 71.35 | 71.42 | 71.48 | 71.29 | 71.22 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.05 | 1.10 | DN | SIDE>1.10 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2875/1.27 | 1.3275/1.3515 | SIDE | UP>1.3065 |
| USD/JPY | 108.30 | 110.30 | UP | DN<108.30 |
| USD/INR | 71.10/70.73 | 71.65 | SIDE | DN<71.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.97 | 0.9840 | SIDE | UP>0.9840 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.24. 50 day moving average is at 71.22.200 day moving average is at 70.60. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.73. Important support is at 71.10/70.73 and next important resistance is at 71.65. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP: 71.41,S1:71.35, S2:71.28, R1:71.48, R2:71.54
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.10. Major support is at 1.05. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1240. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1240.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways but still above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2872 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.3285. Important support is at 1.2872 and later at 1.27.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.30. Next important resistance is at 110.30. Important support is at 108.50/107.70/ 106.50.
