FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 71.20 y’day and the pair traded in the 71.16-71.29 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.21 Y’day, loss of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.27. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.26. Feb USD/INR closed at 71.35, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.42. Feb Euro/INR closed at 78.75, GBP/INR at 93.15 and Yen/INR at 65.13.
FII’S nett bought Rs 13778 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 11373 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.94% y’day. DOW climbed 407 points (1.44%) Y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.02% and Hang seng climbed 0.42% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1040,Pound at 1.3022,Yen at 109.57.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1557 and WT1Crude at USD 50.12/Brent at USD 54.53.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.60% and 3 m libor closed at 1.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.51%.
Economic news:. Indian Equities climbed steeply again Y’day as PMI(services) hit 7 year high reading of 55.5. PMI(mfrg) has hit 8 yerar high of 55.3 . RBI policy is expected today. RBI is likely to maintain status quo due to inflation exceeding the mandated 6%.
Data highlights : – US ISM(non mfrg) climbed to 55.5 and ADP employment data showed that private sector added 291k jobs.
-EU PMI(services) climbed to 52.5. Retail sales declined -1.6% m/m.
-UK PMI(services) climbed to 53.9.
Thursday’s calendar: – US weekly jobless claims.
| USD/INR | 71.29 | 71.16 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1040 | 1.1064 | 1.1033 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3022 | 1.3046 | 1.2941 |
| USD/JPY | 109.57 | 109.54 | 108.55 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1047 | 1.1061 | 1.1079 | 1.1093 | 1.1030 | 1.1015 | 1.0998 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3006 | 1.3071 | 1.3111 | 1.3175 | 1.2966 | 1.2901 | 1.2861 |
| USD/JPY | 109.18
|
109.81 | 110.17 | 110.80 | 108.82 | 108.19 | 107.82
|
| USD/INR | 71.22 | 71.28 | 71.35 | 71.15 | 71.09 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0990 | 1.1240 | DN | SIDE>1.1140 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2840/1.27 | 1.3285/1.3515 | SIDE | UP>1.3285 |
| USD/JPY | 108.50 | 110.30 | UP | DN<108.30 |
| USD/INR | 70.73/70.55 | 72.10 | SIDE | DN<71.03 |
| USD/CHF | 0.96 | 0.9840 | DN | UP>0.9930 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.27. 50 day moving average is at 71.27.200 day moving average is at 70.39. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.73. Important support is at 71.03/70.73 and next important resistance is at 71.65. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP: 71.36,S1:71.27, S2:71.20, R1:71.43, R2:71.52
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1240. Major support is at 1.0990 and later at 1.0870. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1240. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways but still above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3285 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.3285. Important support is at 1.2840 and later at 1.27.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.30. Next important resistance is at 110.30. Important support is at 108.50/107.70/ 106.50.
