USDINR opened at 71.18 Y’day and the pair traded in the 71.13-71.24 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.21 Y’day, gain of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.11. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.18 y’day. Jan USD/INR closed at 71.26, gain of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.16. Jan Euro/INR closed at 79.20, GBP/INR at 93.05 and Yen/INR at 64.77.
FII’S nett bought Rs 2440 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 8327 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.45% y’day. DOW declined 152 points (0.52%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.91% and Hang seng declined 0.9% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1080,Pound at 1.3047,Yen at 109.93.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1553 and WT1Crude at USD 58.09/Brent at USD 64.33.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.781% and 3 m libor closed at 1.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.64%.
Economic news: Indian Equity indices declined as key corporate results were marginally lower than expectations. Focus is on ECB policy this week and upcoming union budget.
BoJ left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. In the new economic projections, fiscal 2020 growth forecast was raised from 0.7% to 0.9%. CPI core forecast (ex-sales tax hike) was lowered from 1.0% to 0.9%. For fiscal 2021, growth forecast was raised from 1.0% to 1.1%. CPI core forecast was lowered form 1.5% to 1.4%.
Data highlights : – EU Zew and German Zew survey improved significantly to 25.6 and 26.7 respectively.
-UK unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8% and claimant count change was reported at 14.9 k.
Wednesday’s calendar: – US Existing home sales and house price index
| USD/INR | 71.24 | 71.13 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1080 | 1.1119 | 1.1080 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3047 | 1.3083 | 1.2996 |
| USD/JPY | 109.93 | 110.22 | 109.76 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1095 | 1.1109 | 1.1132 | 1.1146 | 1.1071 | 1.1058 | 1.1034 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3042 | 1.3088 | 1.3130 | 1.3176 | 1.3001 | 1.2954 | 1.2913 |
| USD/JPY | 109.97
|
110.18 | 110.43 | 110.63 | 109.72 | 109.51 | 109.26
|
| USD/INR | 71.19 | 71.25 | 71.30 | 71.14 | 71.08 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1065/1.0990 | 1.1240 | UP | DN<1.1060 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2905/1.2760 | 1.3285/1.3515 | SIDE | UP>1.3285 |
| USD/JPY | 107.65/106.56 | 110.65 | UP | DN<107.65 |
| USD/INR | 70.73/70.55 | 72.10 | DN | SIDE>71.40 |
| USD/CHF | 0.96 | 0.9840 | DN | UP>0.9930 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.27. 50 day moving average is at 71.35.200 day moving average is at 70.39. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 72.10. Important support is at 71.03/70.73 and next important resistance is at 71.35. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP: 71.24,S1:71.19, S2:71.12, R1:71.31, R2:71.36.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1240. Major support is at 1.1065/1.0990 and later at 1.0870. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1240. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways but still above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3285 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.3285. Important support is at 1.2905 and later at 1.2760.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 107.65. Next important resistance is at 110.65. Important support is at 108.40/107.70/ 106.50.
