USDINR opened at 71.24 on Friday and the pair traded in the 70.86-71.25 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.94 on Friday, loss of 27 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.21. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.11 on Friday. Jan USD/INR closed at 71.06, loss of 28 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.34. Jan Euro/INR closed at 78.95, GBP/INR at 92.95 and Yen/INR at 64.90. Rupee gained on inflows linked to Bharti Airtel QIP of apprx USD 3 bn. Improvement in Global sentiment also contributed to Rupee gain.
FII’S nett bought Rs 1929 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 6467 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.33% on Friday. DOW declined 133 points (0.46%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.47% and Hang seng climbed 0.27% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1121,Pound at 1.3064,Yen at 109.48.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1563 and WT1Crude at USD 59.12/Brent at USD 65.07.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.825% and 3 m libor closed at 1.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.56%.
Economic news: Indian IIP climbed 1.8% in Nov. Mfrg grew by 2.7%. Mining grew by 1.7%. Consumer durables declined by -1.5%, non durables grew by 2% and Capital goods sector contracted -8.6%.
US Non-Farm Payroll report showed 145k in December, below expectation of 160k.Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% mom, missed expectation of 0.3% mom.
Data highlights : – As above
Monday’s calendar: – UK industrial and manufacturing production.
| USD/INR | 71.25 | 70.86 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1121 | 1.1129 | 1.1086 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3064 | 1.3096 | 1.3044 |
| USD/JPY | 109.48 | 109.69 | 109.43 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1112 | 1.1138 | 1.1155 | 1.1095 | 1.1069 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3068 | 1.3092 | 1.3120 | 1.3040 | 1.3016 | ||
| USD/JPY | 109.53
|
109.63 | 109.78 | 109.37 | 109.27 |
|
|
| USD/INR | 71.01 | 71.17 | 71.42 | 70.77 | 70.60 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1065/1.0990 | 1.1240 | UP | DN<1.1060 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2905/1.2760 | 1.3425 | SIDE | UP>1.3425 |
| USD/JPY | 107.80/106.56 | 109.75/110.65 | UP | DN<107.80 |
| USD/INR | 70.55 | 72.10 | DN | UP>72.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9660 | 0.9840 | DN | UP>0.9930 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.28. 50 day moving average is at 71.34.200 day moving average is at 70.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.52. Important support is at 70.55 and next important resistance is at 72.10. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP: 71.42,S1:71.20, S2:71.08, R1:71.55, R2:71.76.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1240. Major support is at 1.1065/1.0990 and later at 1.0870. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1240. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways but still above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3425 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.3425. Important support is at 1.2905 and later at 1.2730.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 107.90. Next important resistance is at 109.75/110.65. Important support is at 108.40/107.70/ 106.50.
