FX MORNING UPDATE

USDINR opened  at 72.02 Y’day and the pair traded in the 71.68-72.07 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.70 Y’day, loss of 13 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.83. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.77 on Tuesday. Jan USD/INR closed at 71.85, loss of 13 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.98. Jan Euro/INR closed at 80.06, GBP/INR at 94.32 and Yen/INR at 66.16. Rupee recovered as Global markets stabilised after knee jerk reaction.

FII’S nett bought  Rs 1447 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 1350 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.23% y’day. DOW declined 119 points (0.42%) y’day. Nikkei declined 1.57% and Hang seng declined 0.83% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1115 ,Pound at 1.3107,Yen at 109.22.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1559 and WT1Crude at USD 66/Brent at USD 60.23.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.827% and 3 m libor closed at 1.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.56%.

Economic news: Global markets stabilised after knee jerk reaction to Iranian missile attack on US bases in Iraq. Gold spiked above USD 1600 and Brent Crude spiked to USD 71.75. However, markets retraced after initial jitteriness.

                                                                                                                       

 

Data highlights : – US ADP employment report showed that private sector added 202k jobs.

-German factory orders declined -1.3% m/m.

Thursday’s calendar: – US Weekly jobless claims

-EU unemployment rate

USD/INR   72.07 71.70
EUR/USD 1.1115 1.1169 1.1102
GBP/USD 1.3107 1.3170 1.3081
USD/JPY 109.22 109.25 107.64

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1128 1.1154 1.1195 1.1221 1.1087 1.1061 1.1020
GBP/USD 1.3119 1.3157 1.3208 1.3246 1.3068 1.3030 1.2979
USD/JPY 108.64

 

109.64 110.24 111.24 108.03 107.04 106.43

 

USD/INR 71.81 71.95 72.21   71.55 71.41  

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1065/1.0990 1.1340 UP DN<1.1060
GBP/USD 1.2930/1.2760 1.3425 SIDE UP>1.3425
USD/JPY 107.90/106.56 109.75/110.65 UP DN<107.90
USD/INR 71.45 72.25 UP DN<71.20
USD/CHF 0.9660 0.9840 DN UP>0.9930

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.26. 50 day moving average is at 71.33.200 day moving average is at 70.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.52. Important support is at 71.45 and next important resistance is at 72.25. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP: 72.04,S1:71.63, S2:71.38, R1:72.25, R2:72.66.                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1340. Major support is at 1.1065/1.0990 and later at 1.0870. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1065. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways but still above major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3425 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.3425. Important support is at 1.2910 and later at 1.2730.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.40. Next important resistance is at 110.65. Important support is  at 108.40/107.85/ 106.50.

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