USDINR opened at 71.73 Y’day and the pair traded in the 71.68-71.88 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.83 Y’day, loss of 11 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.94. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.09 on Monday. Jan USD/INR closed at 71.98, loss of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.10. Jan Euro/INR closed at 80.54, GBP/INR at 94.73 and Yen/INR at 66.45. Rupee recovered as Global markets stabilised after two days of turbulence.
FII’S nett bought Rs 1447 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 1350 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.50% y’day. DOW declined 119 points (0.42%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.60% and Hang seng climbed 0.34% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1158 ,Pound at 1.3127,Yen at 108.31.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1593 and WT1Crude at USD 63.62/Brent at USD 69.31.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.827% and 3 m libor closed at 1.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.55%.
Economic news: Optimism over the global economy coupled with US-China trade deal hopes is lifting the market mood while shaking off geopolitical concerns. However, the US-Iran faceoff will remain a geopolitical risk that presents unwelcome levels of uncertainty to financial markets. USD could lose this year in less attractive USD rate and growth differentials.
Data highlights : – US ISM(non mfrg) climbed to 55 and factory orders declined -0.7% m/m.
-US trade deficit was reported at -43.1 bn USD.
-EU CPI(flash) climbed 1.3% y/y. Retail sales climbed 1% m/m.
Wednesday’s calendar: – US ADP employment report
-German factory orders.
| USD/INR | 71.88 | 71.68 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1158 | 1.1198 | 1.1134 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3127 | 1.3212 | 1.3095 |
| USD/JPY | 108.31 | 108.63 | 107.83 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1162 | 1.1190 | 1.1226 | 1.1254 | 1.1126 | 1.1098 | 1.1062 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3140 | 1.3185 | 1.3257 | 1.3302 | 1.3068 | 1.3023 | 1.2951 |
| USD/JPY | 108.15
|
108.47 | 108.94 | 109.26 | 107.67 | 107.36 | 106.88
|
| USD/INR | 71.80 | 71.91 | 72 | 71.72 | 71.60 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1065/1.0990 | 1.1340 | UP | DN<1.1060 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2930/1.2760 | 1.3425 | SIDE | UP>1.3425 |
| USD/JPY | 107.90/106.56 | 109.75/110.65 | UP | DN<107.90 |
| USD/INR | 71.45 | 72.25 | UP | DN<71.20 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9660 | 0.9840 | DN | UP>0.9930 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.22. 50 day moving average is at 71.32.200 day moving average is at 70.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.52. Important support is at 71.45 and next important resistance is at 72.25. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP: 71.95,S1:71.85, S2:71.73, R1:72.07, R2:72.17.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1340. Major support is at 1.1065/1.0990 and later at 1.0870. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1065. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways but still above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3425 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.3425. Important support is at 1.2910 and later at 1.2730.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.40. Next important resistance is at 110.65. Important support is at 108.40/107.85/ 106.50.
