USDINR opened at 71.61 on Friday and the pair traded in the 71.52-71.83 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.80 on Friday, gain of 43 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.37. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.34 on Thursday. Jan USD/INR closed at 71.98, gain of 45 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.53. Jan Euro/INR closed at 80.22, GBP/INR at 94.17 and Yen/INR at 66.64. Rupee weakness is attributed to US attack on Iran commander and fear of reprisals. Crude has also surged higher.
FII’S nett bought Rs 1447 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 1350 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.45% on Friday. DOW declined 233 points (0.81%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.76% and Hang seng declined 0.32% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1162 ,Pound at 1.3082,Yen at 108.12.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1555 and WT1Crude at USD 63.03/Brent at USD 68.66.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.788% and 3 m libor closed at 1.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.52%.
Economic news: Gold and Oil climbed, US treasuries gained and Yen rallied on safe haven flows following US action on Iranian commander. US ISM( mfrg) remained in contraction mode. Focus will be on US ISM (non mfrg), employment data and EU CPI.
Data highlights : – US ISM(mfrg) declined to 47.2 and construction spending climbed 0.6% m/m.
-UK PMI(construction) dipped to 44.4.
Monday’s calendar: – EU PMI(services-final) and PPI
-EU Sentix unvestor confidence
-UK PMI(services)
| USD/INR | 71.38 | 71.24 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1162 | 1.1182 | 1.1125 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3082 | 1.3161 | 1.3054 |
| USD/JPY | 108.12 | 108.64 | 107.83 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1156 | 1.1187 | 1.1213 | 1.1130 | 1.1099 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3099 | 1.3144 | 1.3206 | 1.3037 | 1.2992 | ||
| USD/JPY | 108.19
|
108.56 | 109 | 107.74 | 107.38 |
|
|
| USD/INR | 71.33 | 71.42 | 71.47 | 71.28 | 71.19 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1065/1.0990 | 1.1340 | UP | DN<1.1060 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2930/1.2760 | 1.3425 | SIDE | UP>1.3425 |
| USD/JPY | 107.90/106.56 | 109.75/110.65 | UP | DN<107.90 |
| USD/INR | 71.45 | 71.85/71 | UP | DN<71.20 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9660 | 0.9840 | DN | UP>0.9930 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.14. 50 day moving average is at 71.28.200 day moving average is at 70.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.52. Important support is at 70.52 and next important resistance is at 71.65. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP: 71.84,S1:71.69, S2:71.40, R1:72.13, R2:72.28.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1340. Major support is at 1.1065/1.0990 and later at 1.0870. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1065. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways but still above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3425 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.3425. Important support is at 1.2910 and later at 1.2730.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.40. Next important resistance is at 110.65. Important support is at 108.40/107.85/ 106.50.
