USDINR opened at 71.31 on Friday and the pair traded in the 71.19-71.42 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.35 y’day, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.31. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.26 on Thursday. Jan USD/INR closed at 71.58, gain of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.57. Jan Euro/INR closed at 79.94, GBP/INR at 93.66 and Yen/INR at 65.43.
FII’S nett bought Rs 7127 Cr of Indian Equities in Dec . FII’S have nett bought Rs 89583 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett sold Rs 4352 Cr of Indian debt securities in Dec. FII’S have nett bought Rs 35392 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.98% on Friday. DOW climbed 23 points (0.08%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.36% and Hang seng climbed 1.3% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.1176 ,Pound at 1.3089,Yen at 109.43.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1515 and WT1Crude at USD 61.70/Brent at USD 68.15.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.874% and 3 m libor closed at 1.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.51%.
Economic news: FX movements were exacerbated by the holiday with many markets closed. USD declined steeply against majors, Gold rallied and Crude climbed. There were no data to explain this move. Rupee’s correlation with USD index collapsed as Rupee fell last week, despite a weak USD close againt majors. This helped EURINR climb to 79.50 on Friday.
ECB said in its bulletin that more recent information “points to a stabilization in global growth”. In particular, survey-based data like PMI point to a “moderate recovery in manufacturing output growth and some moderation in services output growth”. Nevertheless, global recovery is projected to be “shallow”, reflecting moderation of growth in advanced economies and sluggishness in some emerging markets.
Data highlights : – No data release.
Monday’s calendar: – US Pending home sales and Chicago PMI
| USD/INR | 71.24 | 71.12 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1176 | 1.1188 | 1.1099 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3089 | 1.3118 | 1.2970 |
| USD/JPY | 109.43 | 109.59 | 109.39 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1154 | 1.1209 | 1.1243 | 1.1120 | 1.1065 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3059 | 1.3148 | 1.3207 | 1.30 | 1.2911 | ||
| USD/JPY | 109.47
|
109.55 | 109.67 | 109.35 | 109.27 |
|
|
| USD/INR | 71.32 | 71.45 | 71.55 | 71.22 | 71.09 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1065/1.0990 | 1.12 | SIDE | UP>1.12 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2930/1.2760 | 1.3425 | SIDE | UP>1.3425 |
| USD/JPY | 108.40/107.90 | 109.75/110.65 | UP | DN<107.90 |
| USD/INR | 71.20/70.90 | 71.60/71.85 | UP | DN<71.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9660 | 1.0030 | DN | UP>0.9930 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.17. 50 day moving average is at 71.20.200 day moving average is at 70.26. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.52. Important support is at 70.52 and next important resistance is at 71.65. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP: 71.54,S1:71.45, S2:71.32, R1:71.67, R2:71.76.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1185. Major support is at 1.1065/1.0990 and later at 1.0870. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1065. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways but still above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3425 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.3425. Important support is at 1.2930 and later at 1.2760.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.40. Next important resistance is at 110.65. Important support is at 108.40/107.85/ 106.50.
