05/06/2018
USDINR opened lower at 66.96 y’day and the pair traded in the 66.84-67.16 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.11, gain of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.05.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.05. Rupee has gained closer to 2% since last week Thursday when it hit 67.42. Rupee gained as Crude slumped further on Friday June USD/INR closed at 67.28, gain of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 67.25. June Euro/INR closed at 79.04, GBP/INR at 90.15 and Yen/INR at 61.52.
FII’S sold Rs 8081 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date . FII’S also sold 17400 Cr of Indian debt securities in May . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 334 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 31172 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.63% Y’day. DOW climbed 219 points (0.90%) on Friday.Nikkei climbed 1.37% and Hang seng climbed 1.66% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1688, Pound at 1.3304,Yen at 109.81.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1296 and WT1Crude at USD 65.09.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.89% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.88%.
Economic news: Focus is on RBI policy to be announced tomorrow. There is an expectation that RBI could raise rates by 25 bps. This could be negative for Equities and positive for Rupee.
Data Highlights: – US factory orders declined -0.8% m/m.
-EU sentix investor confidence dipped to 9.3 and PPI
-UK PMI(construction) climbed to 52.5.
Tuesday’s calendar: – US ISM (non mfrg)
-EU PMI(services) and retail sales
| USD/INR | 67.16 | 66.85 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1688 | 1.1744 | 1.1667 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3304 | 1.3398 | 1.3295 |
| USD/JPY | 109.81 | 110 | 109.37 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1704 | 1.1741 | 1.1781 | 1.1818 | 1.1664 | 1.1627 | 1.1587 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3336 | 1.3377 | 1.3439 | 1.3480 | 1.3274 | 1.3233 | 1.3171 |
| USD/JPY | 109.78
|
110.19 | 110.41 | 110.82
|
109.56 | 109.15 | 108.93
|
| USD/INR | 67.03 | 67.23 | 67.35 | 66.90 | 66.71 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1820/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1960 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3050 | 1.3450/1.3550 | DN | SIDE>1.3450 |
| USD/JPY | 108.10/107.78 | 111.40/113.75 | SIDE | DN<108.10 |
| USD/INR | 66.50 | 67.30/67.98 | SIDE | UP>67.98 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.65. 50 day moving average is at 66.47. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 68.42 . Important support zone is at 66.50. Important resistance is at 67.30 and later at 67.98. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 67.21,S1:67.09, S2:66.90, R1:67.40, R2:67.52.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1820 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3205 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3450 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.3205 and later at 1.3050.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 20 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.40. Important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is 111.40 and later at 113.75.
