FX MORNING UPDATE

                                                                                       

USDINR opened  at 71 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.88-71.20 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.04 y’day, gain of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.97. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.06 on Wednesday. Dec USD/INR closed at 71.12, gain of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.05. Dec Euro/INR closed at 79.17, GBP/INR at 93.17 and Yen/INR at 65.03.

FII’S nett sold  Rs 517 Cr of Indian Equities in Dec . FII’S have nett bought Rs 82973 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett sold Rs 1500 Cr of Indian debt securities in Dec. FII’S have nett bought Rs 38244 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.31% y’day. DOW climbed 137 points (0.49%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.30%  and Hang seng declined 0.63% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1116 ,Pound at 1.3020,Yen at 109.33.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1482 and WT1Crude at USD 61.09./Brent at USD 66.58

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.908% and 3 m libor closed at 1.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.75%.

Economic news:  BoE left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Bank Rate was held at 0.75% with 7-2 vote. BoE said since the previous meeting “economic data have been broadly in line” with November forecasts. GDP is expected to rise “only marginally” in Q4. Headline CPI is expected to fall to around 1.75% by spring, “owing to the temporary effects of falls in regulated energy and water prices.” BoE also noted that “monetary policy could respond in either direction to changes in the economic outlook”. 

Data highlights : – US Weekly jobless claims and existing home sales

-UK retail sales.

Friday’s calendar: – US Personal income, spending, Core PCE index, GDP(Final)

-EU Consumer confidence

-UK GDP(Final)

USD/INR   71.20 70.88
EUR/USD 1.1116 1.1144 1.1108
GBP/USD 1.3020 1.3133 1.2991
USD/JPY 109.33 109.68 109.18

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1125 1.1142 1.1161 1.1178 1.1106 1.1089 1.1069
GBP/USD 1.3047 1.3103 1.3189 1.3245 1.2961 1.2905 1.2819
USD/JPY 109.42

 

109.66 109.92 110.16 109.16 108.92 108.66

 

USD/INR 71.04 71.20 71.36   70.88 70.72  

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1065/1.0990 1.1185 SIDE UP>1.1185
GBP/USD 1.3020 1.3515/1.3650 UP SIDE<1.3020
USD/JPY 108.40/107.90 109.75/110.65 UP DN<107.90
USD/INR 70.55 71.30/71.65 DN SIDE>71.30
USD/CHF 0.98 1.0030 UP DN<0.98

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.25. 50 day moving average is at 71.25.200 day moving average is at 70.30. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 72.25. Important support is at 70.55 and next important resistance is at 71.30/71.65. Spot closed at its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP: 71.10,S1:70.95, S2:70.79, R1:71.26, R2:71.41.                                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1185. Major support is at 1.1065/1.0990 and later at 1.0870. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0990. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is above major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2765 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.3515/1.3650. Important support is at 1.3025 and later at 1.2740.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.40. Next important resistance is at 110.65. Important support is  at 108.40/107.85/ 106.50.

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