USDINR opened at 70.75 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.75-71.05 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71 y’day, gain of 19 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.81. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.72 on Friday. Dec USD/INR closed at 71.09, gain of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.02. Dec Euro/INR closed at 79.23, GBP/INR at 95.01 and Yen/INR at 65.06.
FII’S nett sold Rs 517 Cr of Indian Equities in Dec . FII’S have nett bought Rs 82973 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett sold Rs 1500 Cr of Indian debt securities in Dec. FII’S have nett bought Rs 38244 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.27% y’day. DOW climbed 100 points (0.36%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.25% and Hang seng declined 0.65% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1147 ,Pound at 1.3293,Yen at 109.54.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1480 and WT1Crude at USD 60.11./Brent at USD 65.32
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.892% and 3 m libor closed at 1.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.78%.
Economic news: Indian exports contracted 0.3% in Nov, while imports declined -12.7%. Trade deficit expanded to USD 12.1 bn from USD 11 bn in Oct. Trade deficit in this fiscal year till Nov stands at USD 106.8 bn vs USD 133.7 bn during the same period last year.
Chinese industrial production rose 6.2% yoy in November, accelerated from 4.7% yoy and beat expectation of 5.0% yoy. Retail sales rose 8.0% yoy, up from 7.2% yoy and beat expectation of 7.6% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 5.2% YTD yoy, matched expectations.
Data highlights : – US NY Mfrg index declined to 3.5.
-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) declined to 45.9 and PMI(services-flash) improved to 52.4.
-UK PMI(mfrg-flash) declined more than expected to 47.4. PMI(services-flash) survey also declined to 49.
Tuesday’s calendar: – US building permits, housing starts and industrial production
-UK claimant count change and unemployment rate
| USD/INR | 71.05 | 70.75 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1147 | 1.1158 | 1.1123 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3293 | 1.3422 | 1.3235 |
| USD/JPY | 109.54 | 109.68 | 109.36 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1139 | 1.1155 | 1.1174 | 1.1190 | 1.1120 | 1.1104 | 1.1084 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3309 | 1.3383 | 1.3496 | 1.3569 | 1.3196 | 1.3122 | 1.3009 |
| USD/JPY | 109.54
|
109.72 | 109.86 | 110.04 | 109.40 | 109.22 | 109.08
|
| USD/INR | 70.93 | 71.11 | 71.23 | 70.81 | 70.63 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1065/1.0990 | 1.1185 | SIDE | UP>1.1185 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3020 | 1.3515/1.3650 | UP | SIDE<1.3020 |
| USD/JPY | 108.40/107.90 | 109.75/110.65 | UP | DN<107.90 |
| USD/INR | 70.55 | 71.30/71.65 | DN | SIDE>71.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.98 | 1.0030 | UP | DN<0.98 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.24. 50 day moving average is at 71.38.200 day moving average is at 70.30. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 72.25. Important support is at 70.55 and next important resistance is at 71.30/71.65. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 71.02,S1:70.86, S2:70.65, R1:71.24, R2:71.39.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1185. Major support is at 1.1065/1.0990 and later at 1.0870. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0990. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.
GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2765 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.3515/1.3650. Important support is at 1.3025 and later at 1.2740.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.40. Next important resistance is at 110.65. Important support is at 108.40/107.85/ 106.50.
