FX MORNING UPDATE        

                                                                               

USDINR opened  at 70.52 on Friday and the pair traded in the 70.52-70.88 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.81 on Friday, loss of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.84. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.74 on Thursday. Dec USD/INR closed at 70.92, loss of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70.94. Dec Euro/INR closed at 79.33, GBP/INR at 94.95 and Yen/INR at 64.75. RBI bought USD to stem Rupee gains.

FII’S nett sold  Rs 517 Cr of Indian Equities in Dec . FII’S have nett bought Rs 82973 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett sold Rs 1500 Cr of Indian debt securities in Dec. FII’S have nett bought Rs 38244 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.96% on Friday. DOW closed flat on Friday. Nikkei climbed 2.55%  and Hang seng climbed 2.57% on Friday.

Euro closed the week at 1.1122 ,Pound at 1.3326,Yen at 109.33.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1480 and WT1Crude at USD 59.77./Brent at USD 64.93

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.82% and 3 m libor closed at 1.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.78%.

Economic news:  Pound sterling climbed as UK PM’S election victory and margin has eliminated Brexit uncertainity. UK will now leave EU on Jan 31 st.

China’s Commerce Ministry said it has agreed with the U.S. on a text for a phase-1 trade deal that would see U.S. import tariffs on Chinese goods reduced in stages. This was reported after US President tweeted that WSJ report on reduction of tariffs is a fake news.

USD gained back against Euro, Gold climbed and Crude rallied on OPEC production cuts.                                                                                                                            

Data highlights : –  US retail sales climbed 0.2% m/m.

Monday’s calendar: – US NY Mfrg index

-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) and PMI(services-flash)

USD/INR   70.88 70.52
EUR/USD 1.1122 1.1186 1.1112
GBP/USD 1.3326 1.3508 1.3306
USD/JPY 109.33 109.71 109.21

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1140 1.1168  1.1214    1.1094 1.1066  
GBP/USD 1.3380 1.3454  1.3510    1.3252 1.3178  
USD/JPY 109.41

 

109.62  109.91    109.11 108.91  

 

USD/INR 70.73 70.95 71.10   70.58 70.36  

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1065/1.0990 1.1185 SIDE UP>1.1185
GBP/USD 1.3020 1.3515/1.3650 UP SIDE<1.3020
USD/JPY 108.40/107.90 109.75/110.65 UP DN<107.90
USD/INR 70.55 71.30/71.65 DN SIDE>71.30
USD/CHF 0.98 1.0030 UP DN<0.98

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.24. 50 day moving average is at 71.42.200 day moving average is at 70.30. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 72.25. Important support is at 70.55 and next important resistance is at 71.30/71.65. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP: 70.83,S1:70.69, S2:70.45, R1:71.05, R2:71.21.                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1185. Major support is at 1.1065/1.0990 and later at 1.0870. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0990. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is above major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2765 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.3515/1.3650. Important support is at 1.3025 and later at 1.2740.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.40. Next important resistance is at 110.65. Important support is  at 108.40/107.85/ 106.50.

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