USDINR opened at 70.83 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.75-70.94 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.84 y’day, loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.92. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.89 on Tuesday. Dec USD/INR closed at 70.98, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.05. Dec Euro/INR closed at 78.74, GBP/INR at 93.37 and Yen/INR at 65.41. Heavy corporate inflows has triggered Rupee gains in the last 2 weeks.
FII’S nettsold Rs 917 Cr of Indian Equities in Dec . FII’S have nett bought Rs 82573 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 1233 Cr of Indian debt securities in Dec. FII’S have nett bought Rs 40977 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.45% y’day. DOW climbed 29 points (0.11%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.08% and Hang seng climbed 0.79% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1139 ,Pound at 1.3224,Yen at 108.53.
Commodities:Gold is now at USD 1478 and WT1Crude at USD 58.91./Brent at USD 64.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.79% and 3 m libor closed at 1.92%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.71%.
Economic news: Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold, suggesting that the current path of monetary policy was “appropriate” to support economic growth and would likely remain in place through next year. USD slipped as Fed Chairman said that inflation has to be persistent and significant for rates to move up.
Focus is on ECB rate decision, UK election. Indian IIP and CPI data are also set for release.
Data highlights : – :- US CPI
Thursday’s calendar: US PPI and weekly jobless claims
-ECB rate decision and Industrial production
| USD/INR | 70.94 | 70.75 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1139 | 1.1145 | 1.1070 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3224 | 1.3214 | 1.3112 |
| USD/JPY | 108.53 | 108.79 | 108.47 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1116 | 1.1162 | 1.1191 | 1.1237 | 1.1087 | 1.1041 | 1.1012 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3175 | 1.3238 | 1.3277 | 1.3239 | 1.3136 | 1.3073 | 1.3034 |
| USD/JPY | 108.61
|
108.75 | 108.93 | 109.07 | 108.43 | 108.29 | 108.11
|
| USD/INR | 70.84 | 70.94 | 71.04 | 70.74 | 70.64 |
MAJORSUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0990/1.0880 | 1.1120/1.1180 | DN | UP>1.1180 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2985 | 1.3180 | UP | DN<1.2765 |
| USD/JPY | 107.90/106.50 | 109.75/110.65 | UP | DN<107.90 |
| USD/INR | 70.55 | 71.30/71.65 | DN | UP>71.85 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9840 | 1.0030 | UP | DN<0.9840 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.55. 50 day moving average is at 71.24.200 day moving average is at 70.30. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 72.25. Important support is at 70.55 and next important resistance is at 71.30/71.65. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 70.97,S1:70.88, S2:70.77, R1:71.07, R2:71.17.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1120/1.1180. Major support is at 1.0990/1.0940 and later at 1.0870. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0990. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.
GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2765 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.3180. Important support is at 1.2985 and later at 1.2740.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.75. Next important resistance is at 110.65. Important support is at 108.25/107.85/ 106.50.
