FX MORNING UPDATE

                                                                                       

USDINR opened  at 71.83 Y’day and the pair traded in the 71.72-71.89 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.77 y’day, loss of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.81. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.67 on Wednesday. Nov USD/INR closed at 71.79, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.86. Nov Euro/INR closed at 79.58, GBP/INR at 92.86 and Yen/INR at 66.10.

FII’S nett bought  Rs 12445 Cr of Indian Equities in Nov . FII’S have nett bought Rs 72695 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 3710 Cr of Indian debt securities in Nov. FII’S have nett bought Rs 46868 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.09% y’day. DOW declined 112 points (0.40%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.48%  and Hang seng declined 1.57% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1065 ,Pound at 1.2919,Yen at 108.66.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1464 and WT1Crude at USD 58.19./Brent at USD 63.61.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.738% and 3 m libor closed at 1.93%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.48%.                                                                    

Economic news: ECB minutes noted that incoming information confirmed “the pronounced slowdown in euro area economic growth and a continued shortfall of inflation”. That vindicated the new monetary stimulus package announced back in September’s meeting. “Confidence” was expressed that the package would provide “substantial monetary stimulus”. But the measures “should be allowed more time” to fully unfold their effects.

 

OECD warned that trade conflict, weak business investment and persistent political uncertainty are weighing on the world economy and raising the risk of long-term stagnation. Global GDP growth for 2020 was revised down by 0.1% to 2.9%, same as this year, lowest annual rate since the financial crisis.

Data highlights : – US Weekly jobless claims increased to 227k, existing home sales and leading index

-EU consumer confidence declined to -7.

Friday’s calendar: – EU PMI(flash-mfrg) and PMI(flash-services)

-UK PMI(flash- mfrg) and PMI(flash- services)

USD/INR   71.89 71.72
EUR/USD 1.1065 1.1097 1.1053
GBP/USD 1.2919 1.2969 1.2894
USD/JPY 108.66 108.69 108.28

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3   S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1072 1.1091 1.1116 1.1136   1.1047 1.1028 1.1003
GBP/USD 1.2928 1.2962 1.3004 1.3038   1.2887 1.2852 1.2811
USD/JPY 108.52

 

108.76 108.94 109.18   108.35 108.10 107.93

 

USD/INR 71.79 71.86 71.96     71.69 71.62  

 

 

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.10/1.0870 1.1090/1.1180 DN UP>1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2705/1.2585 1.30 UP DN<1.2440
USD/JPY 107.90/106.50 109.50/110.65 UP DN<107.50
USD/INR 71.55/71.30 72.45 UP DN<71.05
USD/CHF 0.9970 0.9840 UP DN<0.9840

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average       is at 71.27. 50 day moving average is at 71.22.200 day moving average is at 70.28. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 70.55. Important support is at 71.55/71.30 and next important resistance is at 72.45. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 71.81,S1:71.70, S2:71.63, R1:71.88, R2:71.99                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1180. Major support is at 1.10 and later at 1.0870. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important topo at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.

GBP/USD: The pair is sideways but is still trading above 200 day moving average.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.30 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.30/1.31. Important support is at 1.27 and later at 1.2550.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.50. Next important resistance is at 110.65. Important support is  at 107.85/106.50.

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