31/05/2018
USDINR opened at 67.84 y’day and the pair traded in the 67.42-67.89 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.42, loss of 44 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.86.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.62. Rupee recovered prior day losses. USDINR continued to be volatile. June USD/INR closed at 67.61, loss of 48 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.09. June Euro/INR closed at 78.81, GBP/INR at 89.95 and Yen/INR at 62.17.
FII’S sold Rs 4739 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date . FII’S also sold 16046 Cr of Indian debt securities in May . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 3675 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 29816 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.18% y’day. DOW climbed 306 points (1.26%) Y’day.Nikkei declined 1.52% and Hang seng declined 1.4% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1667, Pound at 1.3306,Yen at 108.72
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1303 and WT1Crude at USD 68.04.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.84% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.78%.
Economic news: Focus is on Indian GDP data to be released today. OECD projects 2018-19 global growth to be at around 3.8% while G20 growth would be 4.0%. It noted in the release that “the global economy is experiencing stronger growth, driven by a rebound in trade, higher investment and buoyant job creation, and supported by very accommodative monetary policy and fiscal easing.”
However, OECD also warned of “significant risks posed by trade tensions, financial market vulnerabilities and rising oil prices loom large”. And it urged that “more needs to be done to secure a strong and resilient medium-term improvement in living standards.”
Trade tension between US and China showed no signs of abatement. US President said that “China has consistently taken advantage of the American economy with practices that undermine fair and reciprocal trade.” And it accused that “China has aggressively sought to obtain technology from American companies and undermine American innovation and creativity.” Chinese spokesperson countered US statement and said that China will take “resolute and forceful” measures to protect its interests .
Data Highlights: US ADP employment report showed that pvt sector added 178 k jobs as against 190k consensus, trade deficit was lower than expected at -68.2 bn USD.
-German retail sales climbed 2.3% m/m .
Thursday’s calendar: – US Personal income, spending, PCE index
-US Pending home sales and weekly jobless claims
-EU CPI and unemployment rate
| USD/INR | 67.89 | 67.42 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1667 | 1.1676 | 1.1519 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3306 | 1.3307 | 1.3242 |
| USD/JPY | 108.72 | 109.07 | 108.38 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1620 | 1.1721 | 1.1777 | 1.1878 | 1.1564 | 1.1463 | 1.1407 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3278 | 1.3314 | 1.3343 | 1.3379 | 1.3249 | 1.3213 | 1.3184 |
| USD/JPY | 108.73
|
109.08 | 109.42 | 109.77
|
108.39 | 108.04 | 107.70
|
| USD/INR | 67.58 | 67.73 | 68.05 | 67.27 | 67.11 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1550 | 1.1820/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1960 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3040 | 1.3450/1.3550 | DN | SIDE>1.3450 |
| USD/JPY | 108.60/107.78 | 111.40/113.75 | UP | SIDE<108.60 |
| USD/INR | 67.30 | 68.15/68.25 | SIDE | UP>68.42 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9735/0.9575 | 1.0040 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.57. 50 day moving average is at 66.34. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 68.42 . Important support zone is at 67.30 and later at 66.50. Important resistance is at 68.42. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 67.78,S1:67.45, S2:67.28, R1:67.95, R2:68.28.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1820 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1550. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3618 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3450 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.3040.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.40. Important support is at 108.60. Important resistance is 111.40 and later at 113.75
