FX MORNING UPDATE

USDINR opened at 70.77 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.77-71.03 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.98 y’day, gain of 29 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.69. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.72 on Tuesday. Nov USD/INR closed at 71.11, gain of 30 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70.81. Nov Euro/INR closed at 78.95, GBP/INR at 91.65 and Yen/INR at 65.29.

FII’S nett bought  Rs 14656 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S have nett bought Rs 60250 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 5055 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct. FII’S have nett bought Rs 43158 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.37% y’day. DOW climbed 30 points(0.11%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.22%  and Hang seng declined 0.27% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1058 ,Pound at 1.2841,Yen at 108.69.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1492 and WT1Crude at USD 56.31./Brent at USD 61.70.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.866% and 3 m libor closed at 1.93%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.49%.        

Economic news: IMF downgraded Eurozone growth forecasts for both 2019 and 2020. Eurozone economy is projected to slow sharply from 1.9% in 2018 to just 1.2% in 2019, revised down from 1.3%. Mild recovery is expected in 2020 by 1.4% (revised down from 1.5%), and stay there in 2021. BOE meeting is the focus event of the day.

Data highlights : EU PMI(services-final) climbed to 52.2 and retail sales climbed 0.1% m/m.

Thursday’s calendar: – US Weekly jobless claims

-German industrial production.

USD/INR   71.03 70.77
EUR/USD 1.1058 1.1093 1.1065
GBP/USD 1.2841 1.2897 1.2845
USD/JPY 108.69 109.18 108.82

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1076 1.1087 1.1104 1.1115 1.1059 1.1048 1.1030
GBP/USD 1.2866 1.2887 1.2919 1.2940 1.2835 1.2813 1.2782
USD/JPY 108.97

 

109.12 109.33 109.47 108.76 108.61 108.40

 

USD/INR 70.92 71.08 71.19   70.81 70.65  

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1070/1.1000 1.1250 SIDE DN<1.0990
GBP/USD 1.2790/1.2585 1.30/1.31 UP DN<1.2440
USD/JPY 106.50 109.30 SIDE UP>109.30
USD/INR 70.70 71.35/71.80/72 UP DN<70.70
USD/CHF 0.9710 0.9970 DN UP>0.9970

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average       is at 71.03. 50 day moving average is at 71.24.200 day moving average is at 70.22. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.73. Important support is at 70.55 and next important resistance is at 71/71.30 and later at 71.80. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 71.03,S1:70.93, S2:70.76, R1:71.20, R2:71.30                                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1250. Major support is at 1.1070 and later at 1.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0870. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is trading above moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.22 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.30/1.31. Important support is at 1.2790 and later at 1.2585.

USD/YEN: The pair is between  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.30. Next important resistance is at 109.30. Important support is  at 106.50.

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