FX MORNING UPDATE  

                                                                                     

USDINR opened at 70.79 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.65-70.85 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.69 y’day, loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.77. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.68 on Monday. Nov USD/INR closed at 70.81, loss of 9 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70.90. Nov Euro/INR closed at 78.88, GBP/INR at 91.39 and Yen/INR at 65.17.

FII’S nett bought  Rs 14656 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S have nett bought Rs 60250 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 5055 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct. FII’S have nett bought Rs 43158 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.20% y’day. DOW climbed 30 points(0.11%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.05%  and Hang seng declined 0.27% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1077 ,Pound at 1.2881,Yen at 109.06.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1485 and WT1Crude at USD 56.95./Brent at USD 62.65.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.866% and 3 m libor closed at 1.93%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.52%.        

Economic news: CNY gained below 7 level as US-China trade war showed further deescalation. There are reports that US will roll back higher traiffs imposed on Chinese imports worth USD 112 bn, which was imposed in Sept. Fed member said in a speech that the economy “looks healthy”, with solid GDP growth, robust consumer spending and a strong labor market. 

Data highlights : US factory orders declined -0.6% m/m. ISM( non mfrg) climbed to 54.7.

-US trade deficit was reported at -52.5 bn for Oct.

-EU PMI(mfrg-final) was reported at 45.9 and sentix investor confidence climbed to -4.5.

-UK PMI(construction) was reported at 44.2. PMI(services) inched higher to 50.

Wednesday’s calendar: -EU PMI(services-final) and retail sales.

USD/INR   70.98 70.80
EUR/USD 1.1077 1.1140 1.1063
GBP/USD 1.2881 1.2917 1.2859
USD/JPY 109.06 109.25 108.64

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1093 1.1123 1.1170 1.1199 1.1046 1.1016 1.0970
GBP/USD 1.2885 1.2911 1.2943 1.2969 1.2853 1.2827 1.2796
USD/JPY 109.01

 

109.38 109.61 109.98 108.77 108.41 108.17

 

USD/INR 70.86 70.92 71.04   70.74 70.68  

 

                                                                                                                                               

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1070/1.1000 1.1250 SIDE DN<1.0990
GBP/USD 1.2790/1.2585 1.30/1.31 UP DN<1.2440
USD/JPY 106.50 109.30 SIDE UP>109.30
USD/INR 70.70 71.35/71.80/72 UP DN<70.70
USD/CHF 0.9710 0.9970 DN UP>0.9970

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average       is at 71.01. 50 day moving average is at 71.26.200 day moving average is at 70.22. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.73. Important support is at 70.55 and next important resistance is at 71/71.30 and later at 71.80. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 70.84,S1:70.72, S2:70.63, R1:70.93, R2:71.05                                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1250. Major support is at 1.1070 and later at 1.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0870. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is trading above moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.22 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.30/1.31. Important support is at 1.2790 and later at 1.2585.

USD/YEN: The pair is between  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.30. Next important resistance is at 109.30. Important support is  at 106.50.

 

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