USDINR opened at 70.98 on Friday and the pair traded in the 70.80-70.98 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.81 on Friday, loss of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.93. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.80 on Thursday. Nov USD/INR closed at 70.97, loss of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.09. Nov Euro/INR closed at 79.31, GBP/INR at 91.95 and Yen/INR at 65.78.

FII’S nett bought  Rs 14656 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S have nett bought Rs 60250 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 5055 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct. FII’S have nett bought Rs 43158 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.11% on Friday. DOW climbed 301 points(1.11%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.33%  and Hang seng climbed 0.72% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.1167 ,Pound at 1.2935,Yen at 108.19.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1512 and WT1Crude at USD 56.17./Brent at USD 61.73.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.728% and 3 m libor closed at 1.93%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.44%.        

Economic news: Indian auto major Maruti reported 4.5% increase in Oct sales y/y to 144277 units. Bajaj reported 11% dip, TVS Motors reported 25% decline in 2 wheeler sales. Hero Motors reported best ever single month retail sales.

GST Collection in Oct stood at Rs 95380 Cr as against 91916 Cr in Sept. Indian Core sector output declined -5.2% in Sept as against 4.3% in Sept 2018.

US non-farm payroll report showed 128k growth in October, above expectation of 105k. Prior month’s figure was revised sharply higher from 136k to 180k. Job growth has averaged 167k per month thus far in 2019, compared with an average monthly gain of 223k in 2018. Unemployment edged higher to 3.6%, from 3.5%, matched expectations. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% mom in October, below expectation of 0.3% mom.

Data highlights : US ISM(mfrg) dipped to 48.3, construction spending climbed 0.5% m/m.

-UK PMI(mfrg) climbed to 49.6.

Monday’s calendar: – US factory orders

-EU PMI(mfrg-final) and sentix investor confidence

-UK PMI(construction)

USD/INR   70.98 70.80
EUR/USD 1.1167 1.1173 1.1128
GBP/USD 1.2935 1.2974 1.2926
USD/JPY 108.19 108.33 107.89

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1156 1.1184  1.1201    1.1139 1.1111  
GBP/USD 1.2945 1.2964  1.2993    1.2916 1.2897  
USD/JPY 108.13


108.38  108.58    107.93 107.68  


USD/INR 70.86 70.92 71.04   70.74 70.68  




Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1070/1.1000 1.1250 SIDE DN<1.0990
GBP/USD 1.2790/1.2585 1.30/1.31 UP DN<1.2440
USD/JPY 106.50 109.30 SIDE UP>109.30
USD/INR 70.70 71.35/71.80/72 UP DN<70.70
USD/CHF 0.9710 0.9970 DN UP>0.9970

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average       is at 71.28. 50 day moving average is at 71.04.200 day moving average is at 70.22. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.73. Important support is at 70.70 and next important resistance is at 71.35/71.80 and later at 72.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 71.03,S1:70.89, S2:70.82, R1:71.10, R2:71.24                                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1250. Major support is at 1.1070 and later at 1.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0870. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is trading above moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.22 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.30/1.31. Important support is at 1.2790 and later at 1.2585.

USD/YEN: The pair is between  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.30. Next important resistance is at 109.30. Important support is  at 106.50.


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