FX MORNING UPDATE                                                                                      

USDINR opened at 70.78 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.72-71.05 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.93 y’day, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.89. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.99 on Wednesday. Nov USD/INR closed at 71.09, gain of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.08. Nov Euro/INR closed at 79.47, GBP/INR at 92.11 and Yen/INR at 65.82.

FII’S have nett bought  Rs 3960 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S have nett bought Rs 49444 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 68 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct. FII’S have nett bought Rs 29216 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.28% y’day. DOW declined 140 points(0.52%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.37%  and Hang seng climbed 0.90% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1160 ,Pound at 1.2957,Yen at 107.94.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1512 and WT1Crude at USD 54.50./Brent at USD 59.70.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.69% and 3 m libor closed at 1.93%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.50%.        

Economic news: US- China trade deal uncertainity resurfaced as Chinese officials felt that trade deal covering subsidies and Core Chinese concerns may be unacceptable. Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q3, unchanged from Q2’s rate, beat expectation of 0.1% qoq. Over the year, GDP grew 1.1% yoy. CPI slowed to 0.7% yoy in October, down from 0.8% yoy, matched expectation.                                                                                         

BoJ left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, but stepped up its signal for more easing ahead. Under the yield curve control framework, short term policy interest rate was held at -0.1%. Also, the central back will continue to increase monetary base at JPY 80T a year, with purchases of JGB to keep 10-year yield at around 0%.

Data highlights : US Personal income climbed 0.3% m/m, spending climbed 0.2% m/m.

-US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 218k and Chicago PMI dipped to 43.2.

-EU Core CPI climbed 1.1% y/y and unemployment rate was reported at 7.5%.

Friday’s calendar: – US non farm payrolls, ISM(mfrg), construction spending

-UK PMI(mfrg)

USD/INR   71.05 70.72
EUR/USD 1.1160 1.1175 1.1132
GBP/USD 1.2957 1.2975 1.2902
USD/JPY 107.94 108.86 107.93

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1154 1.1176 1.1197 1.1220 1.1133 1.1111 1.1090
GBP/USD 1.2938 1.2974 1.3011 1.3047 1.2901 1.2865 1.2828
USD/JPY 108.27


108.61 109.20 109.54 107.68 107.34 106.74


USD/INR 70.90 71.08 71.23   70.75 70.57  





Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1060 1.1250 SIDE DN<1.0990
GBP/USD 1.2710/1.2465 1.31/1.3170 UP DN<1.2330
USD/JPY 107.10 109 SIDE UP>109
USD/INR 70.70 71.35/71.80/72 UP DN<70.70
USD/CHF 0.9660 1.0010 DN UP>1.0010

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average       is at 71.30. 50 day moving average is at 71.05.200 day moving average is at 70.20. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.73. Important support is at 70.70 and next important resistance is at 71.35/71.80 and later at 72.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 71.06,S1:70.90, S2:70.71, R1:71.25, R2:71.41                                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1250. Major support is at 1.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0870. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is trading above moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.22 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.31/1.3170. Important support is at 1.2710 and later at 1.2465.

USD/YEN: The pair is between  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106.50. Next important resistance is at 108.70/109.30. Important support is  at 107.10


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