USDINR opened lower at 70.73 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.68-70.91 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.84 y’day, loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.89. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.95 on Friday. Nov USD/INR closed at 71.01, loss of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.06. Nov Euro/INR closed at 78.88, GBP/INR at 91.37 and Yen/INR at 65.28. Rupee gained as optimism on US-China trade agreement resurfaced. Chinese CNY gained and helped Rupee to gain.
FII’S have nett bought Rs 3960 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S have nett bought Rs 49444 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 68 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct. FII’S have nett bought Rs 29216 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.37% y’day. DOW declined 19 points(0.07%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.47% and Hang seng declined 0.39% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1109 ,Pound at 1.2864,Yen at 108.86.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1490 and WT1Crude at USD 55.29./Brent at USD 61.09.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.835% and 3 m libor closed at 1.93%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.51%.
Economic news: Indian Equity indices climbed on reports that Govt is likely to abolish Dividend distribution tax and make changes in long term capital gains tax and securities transaction tax. Better than expected corporate results and festive demand for autos also contributed to steep gains in indices. Focus is on US GDP , employment and spending data this week. Fed’s rate decision and forward guidance is due on 30 th Oct
Data highlights : – US consumer confidence index declined to 125.9, pending home sales climbed 1.5% m/m and house price index climbed 2% y/y.
Wednesday’s calendar: – US GDP (advance estimate), ADP employment report.
| USD/INR | 70.91 | 70.68 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1109 | 1.1119 | 1.1073 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2864 | 1.2905 | 1.2808 |
| USD/JPY | 108.86 | 109.07 | 108.78 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1101 | 1.1129 | 1.1146 | 1.1174 | 1.1083 | 1.1056 | 1.1038 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2860 | 1.2912 | 1.2958 | 1.3010 | 1.2815 | 1.2762 | 1.2717 |
| USD/JPY | 108.91
|
109.04 | 109.20 | 109.33 | 108.75 | 108.62 | 108.46
|
| USD/INR | 70.81 | 70.94 | 71.04 | 70.71 | 70.58 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1060 | 1.1250 | SIDE | DN<1.0990 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2710/1.2465 | 1.31/1.3170 | UP | DN<1.2330 |
| USD/JPY | 107.10 | 109 | SIDE | UP>109 |
| USD/INR | 70.70 | 71.35/71.80/72 | UP | DN<70.70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9660 | 1.0010 | DN | UP>1.0010 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.30. 50 day moving average is at 71.02.200 day moving average is at 70.20. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.73. Important support is at 70.70 and next important resistance is at 71.35/71.80 and later at 72.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP: 70.98,S1:70.88, S2:70.76, R1:71.10, R2:71.20
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1250. Major support is at 1.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0870. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.
GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is trading above moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.22 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.31/1.3170. Important support is at 1.2710 and later at 1.2465.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106.50. Next important resistance is at 108.70/109.30. Important support is at 107.10.
