FX MORNING UPDATE

                                                                                       

USDINR opened lower at 70.78 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.76-71.08 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.02 y’day, gain of 11 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.91. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.93 on Wednesday. Oct USD/INR closed at 71, gain of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70.95. Oct Euro/INR closed at 79.03, GBP/INR at 91.54 and Yen/INR at 65.39.

FII’S have nett bought  Rs 5269 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S have nett bought Rs 50753 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 432 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct. FII’S have nett bought Rs 29580 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.19% y’day. DOW declined 28 points(0.12%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.55%  and Hang seng climbed 0.87% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1103 ,Pound at 1.2843,Yen at 108.66.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1504 and WT1Crude at USD 55.88./Brent at USD 61.30.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.766% and 3 m libor closed at 1.93%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.50%.        

Economic news: ECB left the deposit rate unchanged at -0.5% and affirmed that new QE program will take effect on November 1. ECB Chief sent a cautiously dovish message about Eurozone’s economy and reiterated the importance of the stimulus package announced last month. 

Data highlights : –  US Weekly jobless claims declined to 212k, durables order declined -1.1% m/m and new home sales dipped to 701k

-EU PMI(mfrg) dipped to 45.7 and PMI(services) dipped marginally to 51.8.     

Friday’s calendar: – German Ifo survey.      

USD/INR   71.08 70.76
EUR/USD 1.1103 1.1163 1.1093
GBP/USD 1.2843 1.2950 1.2789
USD/JPY 108.66 108.75 108.50

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1120 1.1147 1.1190 1.1217 1.1077 1.1050 1.1007
GBP/USD 1.2859 1.2929 1.3020 1.3090 1.2768 1.2698 1.2607
USD/JPY 108.62

 

108.74 108.87 108.99 108.49 108.37 108.23

 

USD/INR 70.95 71.14 71.27   70.82 70.63  

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1060 1.1250 SIDE DN<1.0990
GBP/USD 1.2710/1.2465 1.31/1.3170 UP DN<1.2330
USD/JPY 107.10 109 SIDE UP>109
USD/INR 70.70 71.35/71.80/72 UP DN<70.70
USD/CHF 0.9660 1.0010 DN UP>1.0010

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average       is at 71.30. 50 day moving average is at 71.12.200 day moving average is at 70.20. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.73. Important support is at 70.70 and next important resistance is at 71.35/71.80 and later at 72.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:

PP: 70.95,S1:70.81, S2:70.63, R1:71.13, R2:71.27                                           

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1250. Major support is at 1.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0870. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0870.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is trading above moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.22 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.31/1.3170. Important support is at 1.2710 and later at 1.2465.

USD/YEN: The pair is between  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106.50. Next important resistance is at 108.70/109.30. Important support is  at 107.10.

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