FX – Morning Update

USDINR opened at 70.85 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.74-71.24 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.23 y’day, loss of 22 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.01. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.02 on Friday. Oct USD/INR closed at 71.33, gain of 21 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.12. Oct Euro/INR closed at 78.70, GBP/INR at 89.53 and Yen/INR at 65.96.

FII’S have nett sold  Rs 4656 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S have nett bought Rs 40261 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett sold Rs 932 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct. FII’S have nett bought Rs 28217 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.22% y’day. DOW climbed 319 points(1.21%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.15%  and Hang seng climbed 0.81% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1037 ,Pound at 1.2649,Yen at 108.42.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1489 and WT1Crude at USD 54.80./Brent at USD 60.65.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.75% and 3 m libor closed at 2.01%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.51%.        

Economic news: Indian CPI climbed to 3.99% in Sept . Food inflation climbed to 5.11%. WPI eased to 0.33% in Sept.

Chinese Sept exports dropped -3.2% yoy to USD 218.1B. Imports dropped -8.5% yoy to USD 178.5B. Trade surplus came in at USD 39.7B. Trade surplus with US till Sept is 221 bn USD.

 

Data highlights : –  EU industrial production climbed 0.4% m/m.

Tuesday’s calendar: – US NY mfrg index

-EU and German Zew surveys

-UK unemployment rate

USD/INR   71.24 70.74
EUR/USD 1.1037 1.1064 1.1001
GBP/USD 1.2649 1.2707 1.2407
USD/JPY 108.42 108.62 107.84

 

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1034 1.1067  1.1097   1.1004 1.0971  
GBP/USD 1.2587 1.2768  1.2887    1.2467 1.2287  
USD/JPY 108.29

 

108.74  109.07    107.96 107.51  

 

USD/INR 71.07 71.40 71.57   70.90 70.57  

 

 

                                                                                                                                               

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.0880 1.1110/1.1250 DN SIDE>1.1110
GBP/USD 1.2410/1.22 1.2710/1.2770 SIDE UP>1.2770
USD/JPY 106.50 109 SIDE UP>109
USD/INR 70.75/70.35 71.35/72 SIDE UP>71.35
USD/CHF 0.9840 1.0029 UP DN<0.9840

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average         is at 71.06. 50 day moving average is at 71.06.200 day moving average is at 70.18. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 72.40. Important support is at 70.75/70.35 and next important resistance is at 71.35 and later at 72. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:

PP: 71.16,S1:70.99, S2:70.66, R1:71.49, R2:71.66                                            

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1110. Major support is at 1.0840. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0870. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1415.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is trading close to 200 day moving average.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.22 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.2710/1.2770. Important support is at 1.2410 and later at 1.22.

USD/YEN: The pair is between  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106.50. Next important resistance is at 108.50/109.30. Important support is  at 106.50

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