USDINR opened at 70.83 on Friday and the pair traded in the 70.80-71.08 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.01 on Friday, loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.06. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.05 on Thursday. Oct USD/INR closed at 71.12, loss of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.18. Oct Euro/INR closed at 78.76, GBP/INR at 89.95 and Yen/INR at 65.73.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 4656 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S have nett bought Rs 40261 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett sold Rs 932 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct. FII’S have nett bought Rs 28217 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.63% on Friday. DOW climbed 319 points(1.21%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 1.15% and Hang seng climbed 2.34% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.1037 ,Pound at 1.2649,Yen at 108.42.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1489 and WT1Crude at USD 54.80./Brent at USD 60.65.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.75% and 3 m libor closed at 2.01%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.51%.
Economic news: Indian IIP shrunk -1.1% in Aug. Mfrg declined -1.2%, consumer durables declined -9.1%, capital goods sector declined -21%, consumer non durables rose 4.1%.
US President said that a significant phase 1 deal with China has been made covering Intellectual property rights, financial services and import of agri products.
US will delay the planned escalation of tariffs on USD 250B in Chinese imports to imports, supposed to take effect on October 15. Nevertheless, further 15% of tariffs an essentially all Chinese imports could still start on December 15, unless the second phase could be agreed.
Sterling soared on brexit optimism as EU Chief negotiator signaled prospects of a new solution.
Data highlights : – No major data release.
Monday’s calendar: -EU industrial production.
| USD/INR | 71.08 | 70.80 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1037 | 1.1064 | 1.1001 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2649 | 1.2707 | 1.2407 |
| USD/JPY | 108.42 | 108.62 | 107.84 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1034 | 1.1067 | 1.1097 | 1.1004 | 1.0971 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.2587 | 1.2768 | 1.2887 | 1.2467 | 1.2287 | ||
| USD/JPY | 108.29
|
108.74 | 109.07 | 107.96 | 107.51 |
|
|
| USD/INR | 70.96 | 71.12 | 71.24 | 70.84 | 70.68 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0880 | 1.1110/1.1250 | DN | SIDE>1.1110 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2410/1.22 | 1.2710/1.2770 | SIDE | UP>1.2770 |
| USD/JPY | 106.50 | 109 | SIDE | UP>109 |
| USD/INR | 70.65/70.35 | 71.35/72 | SIDE | UP>71.35 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9840 | 1.0029 | UP | DN<0.9840 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.15. 50 day moving average is at 70.95.200 day moving average is at 70.18. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 72.40. Important support is at 70.65/70.35 and next important resistance is at 71.35 and later at 72. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 71.07,S1:70.96, S2:70.80, R1:71.23, R2:71.34
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1110. Major support is at 1.0840. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0870. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1415.
GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is trading close to 200 day moving average.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.22 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.2710/1.2770. Important support is at 1.2410 and later at 1.22.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106.50. Next important resistance is at 108.50/109.30. Important support is at 106.50.
