FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 71.18 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.95-71.22 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.07 y’day, gain of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.02. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.97 on Monday. Oct USD/INR closed at 71.18, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.18. Oct Euro/INR closed at 78.27, GBP/INR at 87.11 and Yen/INR at 66.36.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 4456 Cr of Indian Equities in Sep . FII’S have nett bought Rs 44917 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett sold Rs 454 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sep. FII’S have nett bought Rs 29149 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.79% y’day. DOW climbed 181 points(0.70%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.61% and Hang seng declined 0.81% Y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0965 ,Pound at 1.2218,Yen at 107.16.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1505 and WT1Crude at USD 52.40./Brent at USD 58.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.59% and 3 m libor closed at 2.01%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.45%.
Economic news: US FOMC minutes indicated that there was three way split over Sept rate cut. While majority favoured 25 bps cut, there was few members who felt that 50 bps rate cut may be necessary to preempt recession. There were also few members who even opposed 25 bps rate cut. FOMC minutes has clouded rate cut outlook going forward.
Data highlights : – No major data release
Wednesday’s calendar: US CPI and weekly jobless claims.
| USD/INR | 71.22 | 70.95 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0990 | 1.0991 | 1.0955 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2226 | 1.2292 | 1.2199 |
| USD/JPY | 107.47 | 107.63 | 106.94 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0977 | 1.0999 | 1.1013 | 1.1035 | 1.0963 | 1.0941 | 1.0927 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2234 | 1.2269 | 1.2327 | 1.2362 | 1.2176 | 1.2141 | 1.2084 |
| USD/JPY | 107.26
|
107.58 | 108.94 | 108.26 | 106.90 | 106.58 | 106.21
|
| USD/INR | 71.08 | 71.21 | 71.35 | 70.94 | 70.81 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0850 | 1.1110/1.1250 | DN | SIDE>1.1110 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2240/1.20 | 1.2585 | SIDE | DN<1.2240 |
| USD/JPY | 107 | 108.50/109.30 | SIDE | DN<107 |
| USD/INR | 70.85/70.35 | 71.35/72 | SIDE | UP>71.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9840 | 0.9995 | SIDE | UP >0.9995 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.15. 50 day moving average is at 70.95.200 day moving average is at 70.18. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 72.40. Important support is at 70.65/70.35 and next important resistance is at 71.35 and later at 72. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 71.20,S1:71.05, S2:70.92, R1:71.33, R2:71.48
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1110. Major support is at 1.0840. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1110. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1415.
GBP/USD: The pair is sideways and is trading between moving averages, but still below 200 day moving average.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2585 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.2580/1.2645. Important support is at 1.2240 and later at 1.20.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 108.50. Next important resistance is at 108.50. Important support is at 107.
